Uniswap’s (UNI) September price recovery attempts appear to have hit a major obstacle around the $4.30 territory. On-chain analysis provides a data-driven Uniswap price prediction for the coming weeks.
Uniswap’s price continues to swim in turbulent waters in September as network demand falters. Will the bears force another downswing below $4?
After a Brief Rebound, Network Demand Has Nosedived This Week
After a brief resurgence in mid-September, Uniswap network demand has entered another downtrend this week. On-chain data compiled by Cryptoquant reveals that only 3.9 million UNI tokens were deployed in network transactions on September 25.
This is a 67% drop-off compared to the 11.5 million UNI Tokens Transferred on September 16.
The Tokens Transferred metric tracks the total number of tokens deployed in network transactions during a given period. A decrease in Tokens Transferred, as observed above, implies dwindling demand.
Hence, it could continue negatively impacting Uniswap’s price unless it trends upward, as seen on September 12 and September 16.
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Uniswap Holders Remain Wary of a Bearish Reversal
The Uniswap price has declined for the better part of September 2023. On-chain data reveals that the increased spate of exchange deposits has played a critical role in the ongoing price retracement.
At the close of August, the total Uniswap tokens held in exchange-hosted wallets stood at 45.3 million. But as of September 26, that figure has now increased to 47.02 million. This represents a net inflow of 1.7 million tokens deposited across various crypto exchanges this month.
Exchange Reserves track the total deposits that cryptocurrency holders currently have in recognized exchange-hosted wallets. Typically, when investors keep increasing their exchange deposits, it suggests a prevailing bearish sentiment.
Valued at $4.30, the 1.7 million UNI tokens fresh exchange inflows imply that an additional $7.3 million in UNI has been added to exchanges, which could be a sign of an impending sell-off.
The drop-off in Uniswap network demand and the relatively high Exchange Reserves could therefore trigger another UNI price correction.
UNI Price Prediction: Potential Drop Toward $3
From an on-chain perspective, losing the $4 support level could trigger a price drop toward $3 before the UNI price finds significant support.
The In/Out of Money Around Price data, which outlines the purchase price distribution of the current Uniswap investors, also supports this narrative.
As shown below, 7,240 addresses had bought 19.6 million UNI tokens at the minimum price of $4.16. If they make last-minute buys to cover their positions, Uniswap price could rebound.
But if the bearish sentiment intensifies, the UNI price will likely drop toward $3, as explained above.
Still, Uniswap bulls could wrestle control if the price rebounds above $6. However, as seen above, the 42,300 addresses had bought 69.1 million UNI tokens at a maximum price of $5.81. If Exchange Reserves remain high, they could book early profits and send Uniswap into a bearish reversal.
But if the bulls can scale that sell wall, then Uniswap price could break above $6 for the first time since early August.
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