SpaceX stock launched like one of its own rockets. Within days of its debut it blasted toward $3 trillion, before settling near $2.66 trillion. Its busiest crypto market is now betting it comes back to earth.
On the perpetuals where SpaceX trades around the clock, the smart money is positioned for a fall. BeInCrypto pulled the data behind the euphoria.
A Record IPO, a $60 Billion Deal, and a Near $3 Trillion Peak
SpaceX (SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 on June 12 and raised about $75 billion, the largest listing ever. Four days later, it signed a $60 billion all-stock Cursor acquisition, buying AI coding firm Anysphere.
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The stock jumped as much as 14%. Its SpaceX market cap pushed past $2.7 trillion, briefly overtaking Amazon.
It has since cooled near $202, and its Hype Score has slipped to 69. The euphoria might just be fading.
The Warning Sits in the Crypto Market
SpaceX trades as one of the busiest Hyperliquid perpetuals, with $304 million in open interest. There, the smart money leans hard one way. Nansen data shows it is net short $20.8 million, with 91% of its exposure short.
Whales are net short $23.7 million. The three tracked cohorts combine to a $45.3 million net short bet, a one-sided bet against the rally.
They built that short from the IPO near $167 straight through the climb to $208. The smartest traders are positioned for a fall.
One Signal Still Keeps the Bulls Alive
For now, the money flow still points to buying. That is the one thing holding the rally up.
Chaikin Money Flow tracks whether money is entering or leaving an asset. It weights each move by volume, so it leans toward large, institutional orders. The reading sits positive at +0.14. That says the big money is still accumulating SpaceX, not distributing it.
Price also holds above its volume-weighted average price, or VWAP. That line is the volume-based average price institutions use to judge fair value on the day.
Trading above VWAP means buyers are paying up to get in, not waiting for lower prices. Paired with the money flow, it says accumulation has not broken yet.
The tell to watch is simple. If price holds up while that money flow rolls negative, institutions are quietly selling into strength. That gap between a steady price and a falling flow is the classic mark of distribution. For now, it has not appeared.
Flows, though, only show how SpaceX trades day to day. They say nothing about what kind of stock it really is.
Tesla Crashed After Its IPO Too
The deeper risk is the company SpaceX keeps. It trades like a Musk stock, not a space stock. Its correlation to Tesla sits near 0.12, while its tie to space peers is about negative 0.15. SpaceX moves on Musk and tech sentiment, even if the correlation is weak for now.
That matters because Tesla, Musk’s other company, also surged after its 2010 IPO before a sharp reversal. Traders see the same script. BeInCrypto reported the bear case in detail. Analyst Ted Pillows expects a 60% to 70% pump, then a brutal 50% crash.
What the Options Market Says about SpaceX (SPCX) Stock
The options market looks like one bullish offset. It is also the most double-edged read on the board. SpaceX put-to-call volume sits near 0.84, based on Barchart data. A ratio below 1 means more calls traded than puts, a crowd leaning long.
Heavy call buying can fuel a squeeze. Dealers who sell those calls hedge by buying stock, and they buy more as the price climbs. But that hedge runs in reverse. If the price falls, the same dealers sell their stock back, and the drop speeds up.
The contracts expire tomorrow, when that effect peaks. If the rally stalls below the call strikes overhead, that support unwinds fast. A call-heavy book is not a one-way bet higher. It is fuel that burns in whichever direction the price breaks first.
Note: Implied volatility, the move the options market is pricing in, runs near 170% into the two-day expiry. That is a bet on a violent swing, not a quiet drift, and it cuts both ways.
The same skew shows the crowd chasing calls while the crypto market’s smart money sells into it. The forced-selling risk sits next door, on the leveraged perps. There, longs face liquidation on a breakdown, while call buyers only lose their premium.
The chart marks the near-term line. SpaceX holds $201 as Fibonacci support, a level BeInCrypto flagged this week. A break opens $193, then $179. This week’s options expiry is the first trigger for the SpaceX stock. The bigger test is August, when early lock-ups expire and fresh shares hit the market.
Every SpaceX stock price prediction is a coin flip from here. The crowd and its call options are built for a squeeze. The smart money and the Tesla script are positioned for a flush. August settles it.
