The crypto market trades at $2.58 trillion, 2.61% above yesterday’s low. The green tick comes hours after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023.
Tighter money was meant to hurt. It did not, because the market had already done the selling.
1. The Selling Came Before the Vote, Not After
Rate futures had the hike near 70% a week out, and it landed at exactly a quarter point, taking the range to 3.75% and 4%. Nothing on Wednesday was new information.
The market had already paid for it. It peaked at $2.73 trillion on September 3 and slid to $2.53 trillion by Tuesday (even Wednesday hit the same level). Therefore, two weeks of selling ran ahead of the announcement.
- Decision: quarter point to 3.75% and 4%, first since 2023
- Priced early: near 70% odds a week before the vote
- Paid upfront: $2.73 trillion down to $2.53 trillion since September 3
2. This Fund Exit Is a Fraction of the Last One
September is the first red ETF month after two green ones, and the last time that pattern ran it cost plenty. March and April took in $3.29 billion. May and June then pulled out $6.94 billion, and Bitcoin fell 20.6% across those two months.
July and August took in $3.69 billion, the same setup. September has pulled out $278.85 million already, about 25 times less, and Bitcoin is down 1.8%.
For the crypto market, the $2.53 trillion line has held every test since September 3, and below it there is little until $2.13 trillion. Upside needs $2.66 trillion first, and only a daily close above $2.73 trillion restores the trend.
- Last flip: $6.94 billion out, Bitcoin down 20.6%
- This flip: $278.85 million out, Bitcoin down 1.8%
- Gap: September’s exit is 25 times smaller as of now
Coin Spotlight: Zcash (ZEC)
Zcash (ZEC) rose 19.3% in a day to $1,369 and is up 168% over a month, now the tenth largest coin. Grayscale listed a spot Zcash fund on NYSE Arca in late August, and it has gathered hundreds of millions since.
Price ran 178% from August 11 to September 9, then paused in a tight channel, resembling a bullish flag and pole pattern. That flag broke on September 16, the day of the hike, one the heaviest buying in a fortnight. $1,344 has turned from ceiling into floor, with $1,540 and $1,857 above it.
- Move: up 19.3% in a day, 168% in a month
- Breakout: flag cleared September 16 on heavy volume
- Levels: $1,344 now support, $1,540 then $1,857 above
Analyst’s View: Sixteen of eighteen Fed officials expect another hike this year.
A market can absorb the one everybody saw coming, and the next test is whether it can absorb one shock that arrives this early.
Bitrue