The Bitcoin (BTC) price reached a high of $30,000 on October 16 but failed to sustain the increase.
The price created a long upper wick the same day, and trades closed the $28,000 resistance area.
Bitcoin Falls After Reaching $30,000
The daily timeframe technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin price has increased since bouncing at the $25,000 horizontal support area on October 11.
On October 1, it broke out from a descending resistance trendline that had been in place since the yearly high in July.
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After validating the trendline as support on October 11, the price accelerated its rate of increase. A new Bitcoin monthly high of $30,000 was reached the same day.
While the increase took the price significantly above the $28,000 resistance area, the Bitcoin monthly high did not hold. Rather, the price created a very long upper wick, considered a sign of selling pressure.
Fake ETF Approval News Triggers Price Surge
It is likely that BTC’s price briefly surged to $30,000 and turned funding rates positive following reports of iShares BlackRock ETF approval.
But, it quickly dropped to $28,000 as BlackRock clarified that the approval was still pending SEC investigation. This reversal led to over $100 million in liquidations, with $70 million in short positions and $30 million in long positions.
This also caused a massive spike in social volume for “ETF,” “ishares” and “$30k”, as reported by Santiment.
According to Matteo Greco, a research analyst at investment business firm Fineqia International, the key date for BTC Spot ETF approval or rejection is January 10, coinciding with the ARK 21Shares filing deadline.
After that, the SEC will decide on all other applications. This could potentially result in mass approvals or rejections in mid-January.
Several large crypto accounts and journalists also reported on the event in X (Twitter).
Besides the fake Blackrock ETF approval, there has been some very interesting Bitcoin news this week.
The U.S. government has seized 200,000 BTC worth $5.4 billion from cybercriminals. But, the federal government has not shown any urgency to liquidate its holdings.
Before yesterday’s increase, Bitcoin whale addresses increased by 16. Whale addresses are defined as those that hold between 100 and 1000 BTC. This was the biggest increase since February 28, 2022.
Also, the launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) edges closer since the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) did not appeal its order to review Grayscale’s application to turn its Bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Finally, transactions in Lightning Network have increased by 1200% in two years. Lightning Network is Bitcoin’s Layer-2 scaling solution. The increase has occurred due to gaming, social media tipping, and streaming.
Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) Reaches 900-Day High
The Bitcoin Dominance Rate has also increased alongside the BTC price increase. The BTCD broke out from the 48% horizontal resistance area in June, reaching a then yearly high of 52%.
After a brief drop, BTCD reached a new yearly high of 52.45% yesterday. This was the highest price in more than 900 days, more specifically since April 2021.
Currently, BTCD trades very close to the 0.382 Fib retracement resistance at 52%. A breakout above it can cause a 12% increase to 58% while a rejection can initiate a 8% drop to the 48% horizontal area.
BTC Price Prediction: What Does the RSI Say?
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) gives a very interesting reading but has yet to confirm the trend’s direction.
With the RSI as a momentum indicator, traders can determine whether a market is overbought or oversold and decide whether to accumulate or sell an asset.
Bulls have an advantage if the RSI reading is above 50 and the trend is upward. The opposite is true if the reading is below 50.
The most important reading for the RSI comes from the reaction to the bullish divergence trendline (green). Since this trendline catalyzed the entire upward movement, the increase can be considered intact as long as the trendline does not break.
While the RSI seemingly broke down last week (red circle), the ongoing BTC price nearly caused a reclaim. Since the trendline coincides with the 50 level, its importance is increased.
If the BTC price closes above $28,000 and the RSI reclaims its trendline, a 12% increase to the next resistance at $31,350 will be likely. This would be a new Bitcoin monthly high.
Despite this bullish Bitcoin price prediction, a close below the $28,000 resistance area can cause a sharp drop. In that case, the closest support will be at the descending resistance trendline at $25,700.
This will be a decrease of 9% measured from the current price.
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