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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Falls After Yearly High: More Bullish Momentum Ahead?

3 mins
Updated by Ryan Boltman
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In Brief

  • Bitcoin's price has increased by 135% since its cycle low of $15,470 on November 21, 2022. This is slower than the previous cycle.
  • The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) gave a signal that preceded the previous bullish cycle, leading to a nearly 400% increase.
  • Despite this bullish BTC price prediction, a weekly close below the $30,500 horizontal area will invalidate the positive price forecast.
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The Bitcoin (BTC) price reached a new yearly high of almost $38,000 on November 9 before falling slightly.

The price has been on a massive upward movement since its cycle low in November 2022. Nevertheless, the trend has been more gradual than the previous cycle.

Bitcoin Uptrend Continues for Nearly a Year

Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows that the price has increased significantly since reaching its low of $15,470 on November 21, 2022. In almost exactly a year, Bitcoin has increased by 135%, reaching a new yearly high on November 9.

The upward movement followed a similarly sharp correction in which the price fell by 78% in a year. The correction began after the all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

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Compared to the previous cycle, the correction was very similar. In 2018, the BTC price fell by 84% in a year, culminating with a low of $3,122 in December.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movement
BTC/USDT Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

The upward movement, however, has been much more gradual. After the December 2018 bottom, the BTC price increased by 335% in 180 days before a short-term downward trend began.

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The ETF’s Impact on Bitcoin

The imminent approval of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is poised to impact the future price of Bitcoin profoundly.

In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Router Protocol’s CEO, Ramani Ramachandran, emphasized the significance of a Bitcoin ETF approval, citing it as a substantial milestone for crypto industry adoption.

He said that the ETF’s approval is expected to enhance accessibility to Bitcoin for a broader investor base and bolster Bitcoin’s credibility. This development is anticipated to foster mainstream adoption by increasing liquidity and reducing price volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Additionally, introducing a Bitcoin ETF is predicted to exert a considerable influence on market liquidity. As innovative cross-chain solutions emerge, the entire market stands to benefit from Bitcoin’s liquidity.

Also, scalability will be crucial in enhancing liquidity, attracting institutional and retail investors, and diversifying the investor base. Consequently, this could result in a decrease in the available Bitcoin for purchase.

Finally, Mr. Ramachandran believes that the role of cross-chain solutions in Decentralized Finance should not be overlooked. He stated that:

Cross-chain solutions will allow DeFi to take advantage of Bitcoin’s ETF and liquidity but, also bring credibility to the entire industry not only Bitcoin, thus creating more investing opportunities to all investors in the future.

BTC Price Prediction: What Does the RSI Say?

Traders in the market commonly employ the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a momentum indicator to assess overbought or oversold conditions, aiding them in determining whether to buy or sell a particular asset.

When RSI readings surpass 50 and show an upward trend, the bullish momentum is still prevalent, indicating an advantage for buyers. Conversely, readings below 50 imply the opposite, suggesting that bears might have the upper hand.

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The weekly RSI gives an extremely bullish signal since it crossed above 70 and into overbought territory. The previous time this occurred was in October 2020. What followed was a 400% BTC price increase in 175 days. 

A similar increase would take the Bitcoin to $180,000 by April 2024.

Another similarity between the two movements is that the price broke out from roughly 500-day horizontal resistance areas. The resistance area was in place in the previous cycle for 480 days. In the current one, it has been in place for 530 days.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Breakout
BTC/USD Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

Despite this bullish BTC price prediction, a weekly close below the $30,500 horizontal area will invalidate the bullish trend.

In this case, the BTC price could fall 30% to the closest support at $25,500.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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