Ripple (XRP) price remains rooted at the $0.50 range despite sizeable gains in the altcoin markets this week. On-chain data examines how the crypto whales and XRP Futures traders are positioning for October.
XRP price has failed to reclaim the $0.55 territory despite a noticeable uptick in the prevailing altcoin market sentiment. The underwhelming price action in September appears to have spooked some key stakeholders.
XRP Whale Investors Have Sold off 330 Million Coins This Week
XRP price briefly grazed the $0.53 range on September 20 to hit a monthly peak. Once it hit that key resistance level, a cohort of crypto whales began booking profits aggressively.
Indicatively, Whale investors holding 10 million to 100 million XRP had 3.36 billion coins in their cumulative balances on September 22. But the chart below shows that figure has now dropped to 3.03 billion as of September 29.
This implies they have depleted their balances by 330 million coins within the last seven trading days.
Valued at the current market price of $0.50, the 330 million coins recently sold by the whales are worth approximately $165 million. For several reasons, such intense selling activity from whale investors could impact the XRP price negatively.
Firstly, a large volume of whale outflows could lead to an over-supplied market if not met by commensurate demand. More importantly, this week’s 330 million outflows bring the whales’ cumulative balances lower than they held at the start of September.
Hence, by selling off all the coins they accumulated this month, the whales could inadvertently influence other stakeholders to take bearish positions ahead of October 2023.
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Speculative Traders Are Betting Big on the Current Price Downtrend
In confirmation of this bearish prediction, key data points in the XRP derivatives markets show that speculative traders have recently mirrored the whales’ bearish disposition.
In an indication of this, while the whales intensified sell-pressure, XRP Open Interest has been on the rise this week. The chart below depicts that XRP Open Interest stood at $321 million on Monday. And by September 29, that number has increased to $374 million.
Open Interest is the total of all outstanding derivatives contracts for an asset across various Futures trading platforms. An uptrend in Open Interest could mean that Futures traders are confident the current XRP price trend will remain dominant.
In conclusion, the bearish sentiment surrounding the whales and the speculative traders’ recent activity align this could translate into an XRP price downtrend in October and beyond.
XRP Price Prediction: Possible Reversal Toward $0.40
XRP price could sharply retrace below $0.50 if whales intensify their selling pressure in October 2023.
The Market Value to Reallized Value (MVRV) ratio, which evaluates the net financial position of current XRP holders, also supports this prediction.
With prices currently sitting at $0.50, investors who bought XRP within the past month hold approximately 2% unrealized profits.
But if a downswing sets in, the majority could look to avoid losses larger than 10%. Hence, the $0.49 support level could pose a major obstacle to the bears.
But if the whales keep selling, then the XRP price could retrace toward $0.40 as predicted.
Conversely, the bulls could regain control if the XRP price can reclaim $0.60. However, those looking to book profits at the 10% margin could close their positions when XRP hits $0.55.
But if that vital resistance level does not hold, the XRP price could promptly reclaim $0.60.