The U.S. presidential election — a seemingly needle-close and often polarizing contest pitting Donald Trump against Kamala Harris — has been a key source of speculation and driver of discourse in 2024. With Polymarket, you can make calculated predictions on key events, from political predictions to real-world outcomes, adding value to your insights. This guide will show you how to use Polymarket effectively, understand election odds, and get started with your own prediction markets.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
➤ Polymarket lets you make predictions on real-world events across politics, crypto, and pop culture, with odds set by user sentiment.
➤ To participate safely, secure your wallet, monitor real-time price changes, and stay informed on current events for the best outcomes.
➤ While U.S. residents can’t trade, they can use Polymarket to follow public sentiment and prediction trends for insight into major events.
How to bet on Trump vs. Kamala on Polymarket
Can you actually predict the next president of the United States of America via Polymarket? The answer is yes, and it’s potentially easier than you might think. By following a few steps, you can make informed predictions, see real-time election odds, and potentially make a profit.
In short, to use Polymarket to predict the result of the U.S. election, you must:
- Set up your crypto wallet and fund it with USDC.
- Navigate to the Trump vs. Harris prediction market
- Select your chosen outcome (Trump win or Harris Win)
- Buy shares (before selling, if necessary, as election odds change).
Let’s break the process down in more detail, step by step.
1. Set up your wallet for Polymarket
Before placing your prediction, you’ll need a crypto wallet and some USDC in it. Here’s how to get started:
- Choose your wallet: Many users prefer MetaMask, a reliable Ethereum-compatible wallet that works well with Polymarket’s Polygon integration for low transaction fees.
- Fund with USDC and MATIC: USDC is used to buy shares, while MATIC (Polygon’s currency) covers transaction fees. Even a small amount of MATIC, around 0.1, usually covers initial trades.
- Buy USDC if not already holding: Besides wallet transfers, you can purchase USDC using traditional tools like debit and credit cards.
Did you know? On Polymarket, shares represent the probability of a specific outcome, ranging in price from $0.01 to $1.00. The price of a share reflects the market’s belief in the likelihood of that outcome. If, for example, Trump’s “Yes” shares cost $0.65, the market sees a 65% chance of him winning. Correct predictions pay out $1.00 per share, while incorrect ones become worthless.
2. Find the Trump vs. Kamala prediction market
To view current odds for Trump vs. Harris, head to Polymarket’s U.S. elections section or type “Trump vs. Harris” in the search bar. Each market’s interface displays share prices for “Yes” or “No,” letting you see where other users stand on the outcome.
At present, simply heading to the Elections tab will reveal all Trump vs. Harris prediction markets.
3. Buy shares in the Trump vs. Kamala market
When you find the right market, here’s how you can place your prediction:
- Select your outcome: Choose between Yes or No shares based on who you think will win.
- Purchase shares: Share prices fluctuate based on supply and demand. If the prediction turns out correct, buying at a lower price could increase your returns.
Here is a quick mathematical scenario to help you out:
Let’s say the Trump vs. Kamala market on Polymarket has “Yes” shares priced at $0.75 and “No” shares at $0.25. These prices indicate the market’s current view of the likelihood that Trump will win. If you buy a “Yes” share at $0.75, you’re anticipating a Trump victory.
Here’s what happens next:
- If Trump wins: Each “Yes” share is worth $1 when the market resolves, so you make $0.25 profit per share (the difference between $1 and your purchase price of $0.75).
- If Trump loses: Your “Yes” shares become worthless, and you lose the $0.75 you spent on each share.
This buy-sell concept allows you to enter the market based on what you believe will happen, with the potential to profit if your prediction aligns with the final outcome.
4. Sell shares before the outcome is final
Polymarket allows you to sell shares at any time before the final outcome, giving you flexibility to adjust your position as election odds shift:
- Lock in profits if the outcome is leaning toward your prediction.
- Limit losses by selling if the odds turn against you.
Here is an example that explains it better:
Imagine you bought Trump “Yes” shares at $0.75. As time passes, new developments (like a poll favoring Trump) cause his “Yes” share price to rise to $0.90. Here’s where selling comes into play:
- Selling early for profit: At $0.90, you can sell your shares even before the election results are known. Selling now locks in a $0.15 profit per share (the difference between the current price of $0.90 and your original buy price of $0.75).
- Cutting losses: Alternatively, if circumstances turn against your prediction (e.g., Kamala gains popularity), the price might drop to $0.65. You could sell at this lower price to recover part of your investment and cut your losses rather than risk a total loss if Trump doesn’t win.
It is worth noting that at any point before the outcome, both “Yes” and “No” shares hold value.
Getting started with Polymarket in the U.S.
Due to U.S. regulatory laws, residents are restricted from making trades on the platform, but they can still access Polymarket to view markets and data. This means that while you can explore political predictions and current odds, active participation — like buying or selling shares — isn’t available in the U.S.
Do note that even though bypassing restrictions using a VPN can be a possibility, we usually advise against it. As for usage, U.S. citizens can view the Polymarket markets and place the predictions elsewhere on seeing and identifying trends.
For non-U.S. users, the process involves a few steps:
- Create an account: Register using an Ethereum-compatible wallet, like MetaMask.
- Fund your account: Add USDC for trading and a small amount of MATIC to cover transaction fees.
This setup lets international users easily access prediction markets, while U.S. residents can explore the site to stay informed about real-time event probabilities.
Why is Polymarket unique?
Polymarket isn’t just for traditional market predictions — it lets you predict outcomes in crypto, sports, pop culture, and business events. Here’s what makes it unique:
- Predict without timing the market: Unlike typical crypto predictions, Polymarket allows you to predict if a price will reach a specific level (like Bitcoin hitting $30,000) without needing to worry about timing your entry and exit. This feature keeps things simple for those who don’t want to track minute-to-minute price changes.
- Tap into events beyond finance: Polymarket users can speculate on sports games, movie box office hits, political outcomes, and even trending topics. This diversity means there are always new opportunities based on current events and pop culture.
How to make money on Polymarket
Did you know? Polymarket recently set a record with $100 million in predictions made in June 2024 alone, boosted by intense speculation during major political events like the U.S. presidential debate. On the debate day itself, Jun. 29, 2024, Polymarket saw an impressive $8.2 million in trading volume as users quickly reacted to shifting odds in real-time.
While profits are never guaranteed, there are a number of things you can do to increase your chances of success when using Polymarket.
- Stay informed for better odds: Staying up-to-date with news around your prediction market increases your chances of profiting. For instance, if you’re following a sports game, knowing the teams’ stats or current form gives you an edge.
- Use real-time odds to adjust your position: Since Polymarket odds fluctuate with public sentiment, you can track share prices to know where the crowd stands. If you sense a market shift, you can sell early to lock in profits or minimize losses.
- Diversify predictions: Spread your predictions across different markets — crypto, pop culture, and sports — to manage risks and increase potential returns. A diversified approach means you aren’t fully reliant on a single outcome, and it can give you steady gains over time.
- Follow market sentiment: Prices on Polymarket are determined by supply and demand, reflecting other users’ overall sentiment. By watching price movements, you can get a sense of the broader market view and make more informed decisions.
Polymarket makes it easy for users to go up and above traditional trading by allowing predictions on a variety of real-world events. This approach provides a fresh angle to speculation — letting you capitalize on news and trends in a way that’s often more straightforward than typical investment markets.
What can go wrong with Polymarket?
While Polymarket can be profitable, it’s important to be aware of potential pitfalls. Here’s a quick breakdown of what can go wrong and how to mitigate risks:
- Market volatility: Prices on Polymarket change based on real-time sentiment. Rapid shifts in demand can cause significant price swings, potentially leading to losses.
Solution: Regularly monitor share prices and exit positions early if market sentiment turns. - Liquidity issues: If a market has low participation, it can be trickier to buy or sell shares at your desired price.
Solution: Stick to popular markets with high trading volumes for smoother transactions. - Limited U.S. access: U.S. residents face restrictions and can’t participate directly, limiting accessibility.
Solution: Use Polymarket primarily for data insights if based in the U.S. - Outcome disputes: Some markets may face disputes over outcomes, especially in less clear-cut events.
Solution: Stick to markets with objective outcomes to avoid disputes over results. - Dependence on wallet security: If your crypto wallet is compromised, funds can be at risk.
Solution: Use secure wallets, activate two-factor authentication, and avoid phishing scams to protect your assets.
Why Polymarket stands out among prediction platforms
Polymarket has created a name for itself within the prediction market space by focusing on transparency, user control, and a wide range of event categories.
While it’s not the only platform out there, it has several unique advantages and trade-offs that set it apart from others like PredictIt, Augur, and Kalshi.
| Platform | Blockchain technology–powered | Market resolution | Focus area |
| Polymarket | Yes (Polygon) | Decentralized Oracle (UMA) | Politics, crypto, sports, pop culture |
| PredictIt | No | Centralized | U.S. politics, global events |
| Augur | Yes (Ethereum) | Decentralized | Open market creation, sports |
| Kalshi | No | CFTC-regulated | Politics, finance, weather |
Did you know? Polymarket’s interface is designed to show the “real-time odds” for each event directly through share prices. Unlike typical betting platforms, Polymarket doesn’t have a “house” — you’re trading with other users. This means that the odds (or share prices) reflect actual demand and sentiment from users like you rather than being set by the platform itself. Plus, you can trade out of your position at any time before the market resolves, giving you the flexibility to act on new information as it happens.
How to trade safely on Polymarket
To use Polymarket safely, start small with diverse predictions across crypto markets or the political arena. Secure your USDC wallet, monitor real-time price changes, and stay informed on events. Set limits on trades and consider exiting early to lock in gains or minimize losses. By following these steps, you can ensure you use Polymarket effectively and confidently manage risks.
Disclaimer: This information is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Making money on Polymarket is possible. However, using prediction platforms to anticipate the election outcome or any other event carries risk. Never spend more than you can comfortably afford to lose.
Frequently asked questions
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