Did Satoshi Plan for Bitcoin Halvings to Coincide with US Presidential Elections?

There has been much speculation over why Satoshi Nakamoto chose halvings for Bitcoin to take place roughly every four years. However, one convincing theory is that Satoshi planned to align them with the US presidential election years.

Bitcoin Halving Master Plan

Bitcoin halvings come about every four years and are among the most talked-about events in the cryptocurrency industry. Miners on the Bitcoin blockchain will see their rewards be cut by half as the emission rate drops, thus making BTC much scarcer. Generally speaking, the halving has been associated with a significant price increase for Bitcoin after it comes to pass. However, the halving is not merely an internal event in Bitcoin’s ecosystem — it’s also surprisingly aligned with the US election cycle. As PlanB (@100trillionUSD) points out, this may not be coincidental.

#Bitcoin halvings coincide with US presidential elections (2012, 2016, 2020 etc) .. chance or Satoshi's genius? pic.twitter.com/KWKQsOcszU

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 4, 2020

However, this may be partly due to many different variables. Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 financial crisis and was thereafter set to have a halving approximately every four years. It so happens that political instability and economic crises tend to occur during election seasons and transitions of power. Therefore, there are many hidden variables present here which may have inadvertently created this four-year pattern and its alignment with politics.

Yes, there is always volatility in and before an election year, a crisis, some stock market pumping, brrr etc. Non-linear monetary hardening combined with market volatility strengthens anti-fragile systems, it shakes out weak hands & non-believers and solidifies the hodler-base.

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 4, 2020

Less Than 40 Days til Halving

Bitcoin’s third halving is estimated to take place on May 13, but there has been much speculation over how the price of BTC will react. Many still maintain that miners will try to sell-off their BTC before the event to offset added costs. Historically, the largest price increases tend to happen after the halving, not before. At the time of publishing, Bitcoin has yet again failed to capture the $7,000 price point and has lost some value. Currently, it’s trading at $6,840 and gained slightly over 2% on Saturday. Despite Bitcoin’s drastic drop on March 12 which it has yet to fully recover from, it still remains on course as per the stock-to-flow model.