Bitcoin Halvings happen every four years — coincidentally falling in line with US election cycles. Was this all a part of Satoshi Nakamoto’s master plan?
There has been much speculation over why Satoshi Nakamoto chose halvings for Bitcoin to take place roughly every four years. However, one convincing theory is that Satoshi planned to align them with the US presidential election years.
Bitcoin Halving Master Plan
Bitcoin halvings come about every four years and are among the most talked-about events in the cryptocurrency industry. Miners on the Bitcoin blockchain will see their rewards be cut by half as the emission rate drops, thus making BTC much scarcer. Generally speaking, the halving has been associated with a significant price increase for Bitcoin after it comes to pass.
However, the halving is not merely an internal event in Bitcoin’s ecosystem — it’s also surprisingly aligned with the US election cycle. As PlanB (@100trillionUSD) points out, this may not be coincidental.
However, this may be partly due to many different variables. Bitcoin was born out of the 2008 financial crisis and was thereafter set to have a halving approximately every four years. It so happens that political instability and economic crises tend to occur during election seasons and transitions of power.
Therefore, there are many hidden variables present here which may have inadvertently created this four-year pattern and its alignment with politics.
Less Than 40 Days til Halving
Bitcoin’s third halving is estimated to take place on May 13, but there has been much speculation over how the price of BTC will react. Many still maintain that miners will try to sell-off their BTC before the event to offset added costs. Historically, the largest price increases tend to happen after the halving, not before.
At the time of publishing, Bitcoin has yet again failed to capture the $7,000 price point and has lost some value. Currently, it’s trading at $6,840 and gained slightly over 2% on Saturday.
Despite Bitcoin’s drastic drop on March 12 which it has yet to fully recover from, it still remains on course as per the stock-to-flow model.