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Can Litecoin (LTC) Avoid Halving Crash as Miners Pile up $200 Million Reserves?

3 mins
Updated by Ryan James
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In Brief

  • Litecoin (LTC) price has held the $90 support territory despite growing negative sentiment surrounding the upcoming Halving event. 
  • Litecoin has recorded spikes in Daily Active Addresses this week, suggesting an impending increase in transactional activity.
  • On-chain data shows that Litecoin Miners have injected 400,000 LTC into their cumulative reserve balances.
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Litecoin (LTC) price has held the $90 support territory this week, despite the negative sentiment surrounding the upcoming Halving event. Can LTC avoid the historical halving crash?

Historical price data from 2015 and 2019 has shown that Litecoin price often crashes once a Halving event approaches. However, on-chain data suggests things could play out differently ahead of the year’s projected August 2 Halving date.

Litecoin Miners are Stock Piling Their Reserves Ahead of the Halving Date

The much-anticipated upcoming Litecoin Halving event will see the Miners’ block rewards cut in half from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC. In preparation, Miners have been piling up their reserves. 

On-chain data compiled by IntoTheBlock shows that the LTC miners have now added 400,000 between July 1 and July 28.

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This brings their total reserves to 2.30 million LTC, worth approximately $207 million at current price of $90. 

Can Litecoin (LTC) Avoid Halving Crash | Miner Reserves, July 2023.
Can Litecoin (LTC) Avoid Halving Crash | Miner Reserves, July 2023 | Source: IntoTheBlock

The Miners Reserves data tracks the wallet balances of recognized miners and mining pools. When it rises, it signifies that the miners are HODLing more of their block rewards rather than selling. 

With their block rewards due to be halved to 6.25 LTC in less than a week, it appears that the miners are in a race to accumulate as much of their current 12.5 LTC earnings as possible. 

With fewer and fewer block rewards flowing into exchanges, the resulting drop in market supply could help Litecoin avoid a Halving crash this time. 

Network User Activity is on the Rise Again

Furthermore, Litecoin has witnessed a considerable uptick in user activity this week. The Santiment chart below reveals how Litecoin Daily Active Addresses increased by 37% from 221,000 to around 303,000 active users between July 20 and July 26. 

Can Litecoin (LTC) Avoid Halving Crash | Daily Active Addresses, July 2023
Can Litecoin (LTC) Avoid Halving Crash | Daily Active Addresses, July 2023. Source: Santiment

Daily Active Address tracks real-time changes in network usage by aggregating the number of individual wallet address carrying out transactions. Consistent spikes in DAA, as observed this week, could indicate impending growth in transactional activity. 

In conclusion, if the LTC Miners keep stockpiling their reserves and users start performing higher volume transactions, Litecoin price could build up sufficient momentum to avoid the perennial Halving crash.

LTC Price Prediction: Is $95 a Viable Target?

Considering the bullish on-chain indicators identified above, Litecoin has a fair chance of avoiding the Halving crash. However, to be confident of that prediction, LTC bulls must first break above the $90 resistance and attempt to turn this into support. 

But as seen below, 1.42 million wallets that purchased 15.03 million LTC at the average price of $90 could halt a potential rally. 

Nevertheless, the bullish pressure from the Miners intensifies, LTC could scale that resistance and push for $95 eventually.

Litecoin (LTC) Price Prediction | GIOM data, July 2023.
Litecoin (LTC) Price Prediction | GIOM data, July 2023. Source: IntoTheBlock

Despite potential bearish pressure, a decline in Litecoin price below $85 could be triggered by the upcoming Litecoin Halving.

However, with 1.55 million addresses holding 9.75 million LTC at an average price of $86.17, the LTC price could find bullish momentum if it can break and hold above this key price range.

Nevertheless, the LTC price could drop as far as $80 if that support level fails to hold.

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In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

Ibrahim Ajibade
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is an experienced On-chain research analyst who began his career in Commercial Banking. He has worked with several Web3 startups and financial institutions —analyzing technical concepts and spectacular events that link the DeFi and TradFi worlds. He holds a Bachelors’ Degree in Economics and is currently pursuing an MSc. in Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies.