Adaptive Fund analyst Willy Woo recently posted a graph depicting the historical performance of 2,000 altcoins in terms of the smallest unit of Bitcoin, satoshi. According to the data, most digital currencies lost 90 to 99 percent of their value in satoshis after the altcoin boom of 2017 and the subsequent bust in 2018.
Woo added that the valuation data questions the long-standing belief that altcoins are commonly used as leverage plays on Bitcoin.
The entire crypto market in one visual. This is the historic performance of 2000+ coins in satoshi value (performance against BTC). pic.twitter.com/RW9uSNrgpA
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 17, 2019
Bitcoin Dominates Over Altcoins
Bitcoin is up by over 178 percent in 2019, while other cryptocurrencies have failed to show much momentum. According to a report by Coin Metrics, July saw the majority of altcoins experiencing a drop of over 40 percent, with significant altcoins like Ethereum and Litecoin witnessing declines of 28 and 32 percent respectively. Bitcoin, however, only dropped by around 2 percent.
According to Max Keiser, host of RT’s Keiser Report, Bitcoin’s dominance is only set to grow. He predicts that the cryptocurrency’s dominance will increase from the current 68.2 percent to over 80 percent. He added that the 2014 to 2017 era of altcoins and hard forks has ended.
In particular, the altcoin market began sliding down when Bitcoin reached its recent high of over $12,000. Investors likely began pulling money out of altcoins to take advantage of Bitcoin’s surging price. Recent geopolitical turmoil, such as the US-China trade war, a slowdown of developing economies and Chinese yuan hitting an 11 year low, are also being seen as a contributing factor to Bitcoin’s rise. More recently, the cryptocurrency has been showing behavior similar to gold, which suggests that more investors have been looking at Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and a store of value.
Next “Alt-Season” is Not Guaranteed
This is one of my alt-season indicators. A bullish cross of the 365d moving avg of [alt-coin marketcap / BTCUSD]. It's crude and imperfect, but easy to pull up on TradingView. Alt-season is not guaranteed, if it happens I can't see it happening till end of 2019 / start of 2020. pic.twitter.com/mOLFhXqky0
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) July 19, 2019
In another tweet, Willy Woo claimed that an alt-season is not guaranteed, adding that if it does happen, it will not take place before the end of 2019 or the start of 2020. He also warned his followers that altcoins seldom perform long term across full cycles of a bull or bear market. He said that the majority of altcoins wouldn’t survive long term, with few exceptions such as Ethereum (ETH).
The 2016-2017 alt season had a perfect stage set up for a parabolic altcoin rally. Ethereum emerged as the leading blockchain network that helped launch hundreds of other blockchain projects. Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) became commonplace as well. When the next alt-season does arrive, it will be very different from the previous one, as this time, investments will be primarily focused on merit instead of hype. Meanwhile, check out our list of the top 10 worst altcoins of 2019 so far.
Do you believe another altcoin boom could take place in the near future? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
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