On August 1, Ripple’s (XRP) price briefly dropped below $0.68 for the first time since the famous victory against the SEC in mid-July. On-chain data analysis reveals that XRP long-term holders began a network-wide sell-off on Monday.
Following the much-heralded victory in its long-running case against the SEC, Ripple’s (XRP) price hit a 1-year peak at $0.84. However, over the past two weeks, the XRP price seems to have stagnated around the $0.70 level in recent weeks. On-chain data reveals that XRP long-term investors are growing increasingly unconvinced that they would see more gains.
Do the bulls have enough in the tank to soak up the downward pressure?
XRP Long-Term Investors are Now Looking to Exit Rather than Hold
XRP has witnessed intense sell pressure from long-term holders this week. According to Satniment’s Age Consumed data, the sell-off began around Monday, July 31.
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In an indication of this, XRP Age Consumed has spiked from 8.89 billion on July 22 to 94.71 billion on July 28. This promptly triggered a 3% price correction below the $0.70 territory.
On a more concerning note, the chart below shows that it has further spiked to 231 billion and 437 billion on July 31 and Aug 1 respectively.
Age Consumed evaluates real-time changes in the trading activity of long-term investors. It is computed by multiplying the number of recently traded tokens by a number of days since they were last moved.
As observed above, persistent spikes in Age Consumed means a large number of long-held coins have been moved in the last few days.
If it is not matched by sufficient market demand, this could potentially trigger a prolonged XRP price retracement.
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Transaction Volumes Have Been Declining Since Lawsuit Victory
Sencondly, the XRP Ledger blockchain network has been unable to sustain the high transactional activity it witnessed in the aftermath of the SEC lawsuit victory. This further confirms the bearish outlook as the long-term holders begin to exit their positions.
In the aftermath of the lawsuit victory, the red bars in the chart below illustrate that investors transacted 2.77 billion XRP coins on July 13. Since then, the network activity has trended downward, reaching just 1.21 billion XRP at the close of July 31.
Transaction Volume estimates the current level of market demand by tracking the number of tokens investors transacted during a given period. As observed above, XRP’s network activity has been declining persistently since mid-July.
And with the rising sell pressure as long-term holders exit their positions, XRP may not attract sufficient demand to sustain the current high prices.
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XRP Price Prediction: The $0.65 Support is Critical
If the XRP long-term holders contnue to exit their positions at the current rate, it could catalyze a prolonged price drop toward $0.60. However, XRP will have inital support around the $0.65 territory.
MVRV (30d) data shows that most investors that bought XRP in the last 30 days are now 1% underwater. They could keep selling until their losses reach 5%, around the $0.65 range.
But if that support level fails to hold, XRP could drop closer to $0.60.
Yet, the bulls could regain control if XRP can flip $0.75 again. However, this is quite unlikely with the current transactional activity levels. Hence, investors could start selling once their profits hit 5%, around $0.72.
But if that resistance level does not hold, XRP could reclaim $0.75.