The year 2020 for XRP both began and ended with considerable controversy. On January 6, XRP futures were added on Binance. The price increase that preceded the announcement caused numerous observers to make accusations of insider trading.
The XRP price started to move several hours prior to the announcement, giving the impression that insiders were aware of the information before it became public. So far, the CEO of Binance has denied the accusations.
In 2020, Ripple has continued with its monthly scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from its escrow. In addition, the ‘feud’ between Ripple’s CEO and Bitcoin has been ongoing. At the end of January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told the Wall Street Journal that ‘I’m bullish on BTC as a store of value, but not for payments. You don’t want to use BTC at Starbucks because, by the time you get your coffee, it’ll be cold.
However, the global market decline in March has been more pronounced in the price of XRP than that of BTC.
On Dec. 23, Ripple Labs and their top two executives were sued by the SEC, being charged for the illegal sale of XRP, which led to roughly $1.3 Billion in funds.
The year In light of these developments, BeInCrypto will attempt to predict the XRP year-end price for 2021, and 2025.
After the drop which led to a low of $0.17 on Dec. 29, XRP has been moving upwards. Jan 7 saw a very significant increase which lead to a high of $0.37 being reached. The increase was preceded by a very significant bullish divergence in the daily RSI.
Nevertheless, XRP was rejected by the 0.382 Fib retracement level and has been decreasing since.
While the pump was significant, the XRP trend cannot be considered bullish until the price reclaim the 0.618 Fib retracement level, which coincides with the horizontal $0.47 resistance area.
While short-term trading can be stressful due to the high volatility and numerous movements that are near impossible to predict, we have created a telegram group for hosting daily discussions about recent price movements as well as educational content intended to help traders of every skill level.
Important Highs And Lows
Throughout its history, XRP has reached several notable highs and lows.
The most significant are given in the table below:
|December 18, 2014 – $0.3124||November 12, 2015 – $0.0035|
|May 17, 2017 – $0.4481||January 2, 2017 – $0.0037|
|January 4, 2018 – $3.5316||March 13, 2020 – $0.097|
Previous Market Cycles
In order to predict the XRP price in the distant future, we will attempt to find similarities between price movement patterns in the existing market cycles up until this point. Additionally, we will use technical indicators in order to help confirm these similarities. From there, these indicators can be used to make predictions about the rate of movement, a useful strategy to help in predicting the price at an exact point in the future.
Since 2015, there have only been two periods in which the weekly RSI has fallen below 35 — on November 12, 2015, and on March 13, 2020. Therefore, we could make the assumption that these two lows represent similar points in their respective market cycles. In this particular case, the lows that preceded an accumulation period prior to the main bullish market cycle.
Going back to the lows, we can see that the rate of decrease and time it took for the price to reach these lows from their preceding highs has been very dissimilar.
In the 2015 cycle, the preceding high was reached on December 18, 2014, at a price of $0.3124. What followed was a 329-day downward trend in which the price decreased by 89%.
In the 2020 cycle, the preceding high was reached on January 4, 2018, at a price of $3.531. This was followed by a decrease of 97% that transpired over 798 days.
Using just these values, we can make the assumption that the movement after the March 13, 2020 bottom could be very similar to that of November 12, 2015. However, the price action occurred at a rate that was slower by 2.42 times (798/329) and has a magnitude of 1.1 times higher (97/89). These rates will be used in the following sections in order to make predictions for the price at the end of 2021 and 2025.
These aren’t the only similarities between the two bottoms. Slightly prior to the 2015 bottom, the 10 and 20-week moving averages (MA) had made a bearish cross. The price began to decrease shortly after, a movement that continued until the price reached the aforementioned low. In addition, XRP fell below the lower Bollinger Band on two occasions, including at the bottom.
An almost identical movement occurred during the 2020 bottom. A bearish cross between the same MAs transpired in August 2019 and signaled a downward move. A much longer decrease ensued, which is not surprising in hindsight due to the 2.42 time period ratio calculated above. In an almost identical manner, the price decreased twice below the lower Bollinger band. While the second decrease went far below the band in the form of a wick, the closing price was very similar to that in 2015.
2020 Year-End Prediction
In the previous section, we made the calculated assumption that the movement after the March 13, 2020 low was very similar to that after the November 12, 2015 low. However, this move occurred 2.42 times slower with a magnitude of 1.1 times greater.
Now, we can use these ratios to find the price after the November 12, 2015 low that coincides with that on December 31, 2020. Since the end of the year is 273 days from the date at the time of writing, we need to find the price difference 133 days after the November 12, 2015 bottom and apply it to the current date — multiplying it with a magnitude of 1.1.
Doing this gives us a price of $0.35 on December 31, 2020. It is worth mentioning that we are using the closing prices instead of the weekly wick-lows seen on March 13. This is done since the considerably low-wick is considered an extreme outlier, due to its massive decrease below the lower Bollinger band.
As for the macro movement, it looks as if the price is trading inside a descending wedge. It is possible that the price continues trading inside this wedge for a few more months prior to breaking out and moving towards the given target of $0.35 by the end of the year.
2021 Year-End Prediction
The prediction for 2020 has been relatively accurate, since XRP is trading just above the predicted value.
However, the price movement makes it unlikely that the same rate of increase will continue in 2021, due to the sharp impulse that took XRP from $0.25 to $0.70 in a matter of days.
Therefore, it is more likely that the rate of increase will accelerate until the end of 2021.
An interesting similarity that could help determine the price at the end of the year is found by the 3-day RSI.
In May 2017, the 3-day RSI briefly reached values above 80 before decreasing. This move lasted 60 days. This was the first time in XRP’s price history that the 3-day RSI moved to overbought.
The same thing happened during the current upward move, which began in Oct 2020. However, this time the move occurred in 30 days, half the amount of time of the previous movement.
Keeping the same rate of increase as in 2017 but in half the time, we arrive at a high of $1.85 on Dec. 21, 2021.
Five Years From Now
Sticking with the same data extrapolation methods used in the predictions above, we can estimate the price on December 31, 2025. Using the 2.42 rate of time allows us to use a date after the 2015 correction that corresponds with December 31, 2025.
Doing so, we arrive at a price of $40 on December 31, 2025. However, prior to reaching this high, the XRP price is expected to reach an all-time high price of $120 around July 2025.
As with any cryptocurrency, the potential for volatile swings in both directions remains. However, XRP has distinguished itself relative to many cryptocurrencies in several categories, including but not limited to name recognition, partnerships, and use cases. Even though the company has Ripple has been experiencing a somewhat hectic 2020, the high potential for widespread XRP adoption persists.
The price predictions for 2020, 2021 and 2025 are given in the table below.
|December 31, 2020||December 31, 2021||December 31, 2025|
Do you think XRP will ever reach a double-digit price? What has to occur in order for the price to do so? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This article is not meant to be used as personal investment advice, nor is it information from a qualified investment advisor. Cryptocurrency is a notoriously risky investment, and it is possible to lose everything. Please conduct your own research and investigation prior to investing in cryptocurrency.