BTC futures are looking bearish. Some traders are willing to pay a high APR to place their bets on the price dropping.
Bitcoin futures markets are pointing downward, but traders are still split on what to expect.
Bitcoin Futures Pay High APR
Indicators for BTC futures markets are not looking good, as traders are willing to pay a higher APR to short. According to CL (@CL207), people are paying a 6.5% APR interest to short BTC on futures exchanges.
However, some traders saw this as a counter-signal. As some replies said, this is the opportunity to margin-long. Indeed, that’s what the majority of the market seems to be doing. Most margin traders for BTC on Bitfinex, for example, are currently long (64%). A similar situation is true for BitMEX.
However, it should be noted that it is difficult to gauge the market based on longs vs. shorts. Recently, Ethereum margin-longs were at remarkable levels, which the market dumped on shortly afterward.
Short-Term Future Is Uncertain
It is difficult to extrapolate future market movement based on futures markets or margin-longs vs. shorts. This is because the macroeconomic situation is so uncertain despite financial markets rallying in the short-term.
Bitcoin has largely been following the S&P 500 in the past two months. This means that future price movements have less to do with Bitcoin and more to do with the greater financial markets. As of now, macroeconomic indicators are on shaky footing: the WTO expects global trade to drop up to 32% this year and the IMF is expecting a major recession.
Altogether, this means that this halving event will be different from the others. Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI has never been this weak before a halving event. As some analysts have warned, this ‘dip’ is not like any others. This is because the global situation is not like anything we’ve seen before.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped some 2.63% and is currently trading just above the $6,700 price point.