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Is Elon Musk Losing Influence on the Dogecoin (DOGE) Price? 

3 mins
Updated by Ryan James
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In Brief

  • Elon Musk’s influence on Dogecoin price dates back to 2021, when a series of Twitter posts including a Saturday Night Live (SNL) comment drove the DOGE price wildly. 
  • This week, Elon Musk’s tweet mentioning DOGE has failed to trigger a similar impact on the DOGE price over the last 24 hours.
  • More recently, the DOGE price spiked 35% in April 2023 when Twitter added the Dogecoin logo to it home page. 
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This week, Elon Musk’s tweet mentioning Dogecoin (DOGE) has failed to trigger significant price movement. Historical data analysis examines if this is a black swan event or early signs that Elon Musk’s influence on the DOGE community is waning. 

Elon Musk’s influence on the Dogecoin (DOGE) price dates back to 2021, when a series of snide Twitter posts and media statements drove the DOGE price wildly. Is Elon Musk losing influence on Dogecoin price?

Brief History of Elon Musk’s Influence on DOGE Price 

Elon Musk’s influence on the Dogecoin (DOGE) price dates back to 2021, when a series of cryptic Twitter posts and media statements appeared to impact the price of DOGE directly. Two of the most notable instances are illustrated below. 

Firstly, during his Saturday Night Live (SNL) comment on May 8, 2021, Elon Musk called the cryptocurrency a “hustle” during his infamous monologue. The chart below shows how the DOGE price dropped by nearly 52% from $0.69 to $0.31 before the end of the month.

Elon Musk’s Influence on Dogecoin (DOGE) | Historical Price data, 2021 - 2023
Elon Musk’s Influence on Dogecoin (DOGE) | Historical Price data, 2021 – 2023. Source: CoinMarketCap

More recently, on April 3, 2023, the DOGE logo suddenly appeared on Twitter’s homepage after Elon Musk secured the acquisition of the social media giant. 

Investors quickly aped in under the assumption that Twitter could potentially adopt DOGE for commercial transactions, as Elon previously suggested. Within 24 hours, the DOGE price surged by 35% from $0.075 to $0.11. 

However, Elon Musk’s latest tweet referencing Dogecoin on July 17 has failed to move the market significantly. Considering the historical antecedents highlighted above, a few DOGE investors are raising eyebrows. 

DOGE Miners Could Weild More Influence in The Future 

As things stand, DOGE miners currently control approximately 3.2% of the total DOGE in circulation. Hence, as Elon Musk’s influence on DOGE price begins to wane, strategic investors could turn to Dogecoin miners’ sentiment for trading cues. 

Notably, the miners have been taking a bullish stance and stacking up their reserves in recent weeks. Between July 6 and July 18, DOGE miners have added 50 million coins to their holdings, as seen below.

Elon Musk’s Influence on Dogecoin (DOGE) | Miner Reserves data | July 2023.
Elon Musk’s Influence on Dogecoin (DOGE) | Miner Reserves data | July 2023. Source: IntoTheBlock

Miner Reserves tracks real-time changes in the wallet balances belonging to recognized miners. When Miners increase reserves, as seen above, it indicates that they are taken a positive disposition. 

When miners hold a significant portion of the circulating supply, their trading activity impacts price action significantly. If strategic investors begin to mirror their miners’ trades, DOGE could score some gains in the coming weeks. 

DOGE Price Prediction: The $0.085 Target Remains Valid

Despite Elon Musk’s tweet failing to move the needle, the bullish miners could pick up the slack and push DOGE toward $0.08. 

However, the bulls must first surmount the sell-wall around the $0.070 range. At that zone, 270,800 investors had acquired 34.9 billion Dogecoin at an average price of $0.070. If they choose to sell, they could trigger a bearish reversal. 

But, if the bulls can scale that obstacle, DOGE could head toward $0.085 as predicted. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction | GIOM data July,2023
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction | GIOM data, July 2023. Source: IntoTheBlock

Still, the bears could force a prolonged downswing if DOGE drops below $0.060. However, the 271,000 investors that bought 4.88 billion Dogecoin at the minimum price of $0.059 will look to prevent the drop. 

Although unlikely, DOGE could still drop toward $0.055 if that support level fails to hold.

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Ibrahim Ajibade
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is an experienced On-chain research analyst who began his career in Commercial Banking. He has worked with several Web3 startups and financial institutions —analyzing technical concepts and spectacular events that link the DeFi and TradFi worlds. He holds a Bachelors’ Degree in Economics and is currently pursuing an MSc. in Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies.