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Dogecoin (DOGE) Social Sentiment Hits New Lows: Is Price Reversal Imminent?

3 mins
Updated by Ryan James
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In Brief

  • After the turbulent start to the week, Dogecoin (DOGE) price reclaimed $0.072 on Tuesday, but negative media sentiment has sent it spiraling toward $0.065 once again.
  • The rising Mean Coin Age suggests that long-term loyalists in the Dogecoin community appear to have stopped offloading their coins.
  • Since June 1, mentions of DOGE has declined 72% across Twitter and other relevant crypto-focused media channels. 
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After the turbulent start to the week, Dogecoin (DOGE) price quickly reclaimed $0.072 on Tuesday. However, widespread negative media sentiment has sent it spiraling toward $0.065 once again. Will strategic investors interpret this as a turning point for a larger Dogecoin price rebound? 

Dogecoin (DOGE), the world’s largest memecoin by market capitalization, has been hugely affected by the media FUD spread by the SEC’s lawsuit against major exchanges. On-chain data suggests that long-term loyalists of the Dogecoin community are staying solid. 

With media mentions of DOGE going quiet, will the bulls consider this perfect timing to buy the dip and stage another DOGE price rebound mission? 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Media Mentions Drops to New Lows

The media buzz surrounding Dogecoin has been trending negatively since Monday, June 5. Santiment’s Social Volume metric tracks market sentiment by monitoring the number of times a project is mentioned across Twitter and other relevant crypto-media channels. 

The chart below illustrates how DOGE Social Volume has dropped 72% from 8219 to 2308 mentions between June 5 and June 9. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Rebound, June 2023 - Social Volume
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Rebound, June 2023 – Social Volume. Source: Santiment

When Social Volume trends drop considerably, as seen above, it signals a lot of stakeholders are currently overlooking the asset. 

In a bid to buy at the bottom, strategic investors typically look to swoop in when market sentiment hits a new low. Bullish investors could interpret this as a signal that the DOGE price dip has reached a turning point. 

If this bullish outlook plays out, DOGE will likely make its way up the charts again in the coming days. 

Long-term Loyalists are Showing Strong Hands 

According to on-chain data, most DOGE holders that sold off their coins on this were short-term traders. The Santiment chart below shows that while massive sell-offs on Monday triggered an 8% DOGE price drop, Mean Coin Age across the Dogecoin ecosystem actually trended upward. 

Specifically, between June 1 and June 9, DOGE Mean Coin Age is now up 5% from 54,317 to 57,219

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Rebound - June 2023 - Mean Coin Age data
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Rebound – June 2023 – Mean Coin Age data. Source: Santiment

In simple terms, Mean Coin Age tracks the trading activity of long-term holders by evaluating how long coins in circulation have stayed in their current wallet addresses.

When Mean Coin Age increases marginally during a price retracement, as seen above, it signals growing confidence among long-term holders. 

Currently, nearly 70% of total Dogecoin in circulation is in the hands of long-term investors who have held for more than 1 year. So, logically, if most of them continue to HODL, the DOGE price will likely bounce back in the coming days.

In conclusion, the dysphoric social sentiment and rare confidence shown by long-term loyalists are critical factors that could propel a DOGE price rebound as the SEC FUD clears. 

DOGE Price Prediction: Possible Rebound to $0.08

With prices at $0.068, Dogecoin holders will likely avoid selling now to avoid booking huge losses. Based on the estimations gleaned from Santiment’s Market-Value to Realized-Value (MVRV) data, DOGE price will likely rebound toward $0.08.

Most crypto investors that bought DOGE within the past month are now looking at unrealized losses of 5.7%. Historical trading patterns suggest that DOGE could rise to 72% before facing significant resistance when the majority of holders break even. 

However, if DOGE garners enough bullish momentum to scale that resistance, the rebound could continue toward $0.08. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction - MVRV Ratio. June 2023
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction – MVRV Ratio. June 2023. Source: Santiment

Conversely, the bears could still negate the bullish narrative if Dogecoin price unexpectedly drops below $0.065. Nevertheless, a large number of investors will likely offer bullish support at this level to avoid assuming 10% losses.

Otherwise, DOGE could slip further toward the next significant support level at $0.06  

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Ibrahim Ajibade
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is an experienced On-chain research analyst who began his career in Commercial Banking. He has worked with several Web3 startups and financial institutions —analyzing technical concepts and spectacular events that link the DeFi and TradFi worlds. He holds a Bachelors’ Degree in Economics and is currently pursuing an MSc. in Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies.