Dogecoin retains its spot as the top-ranking memecoin globally, but Pepe, Baby Doge Coin, and Dogelon Mars have encroached on considerable market share in the past month. The sharp decline in Daily Active Addresses points towards a bearish Dogecoin price prediction. Where does DOGE find support?
New tokens like PEPE (PEPE), Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE), and Dogelon Mars (ELON) have recently recorded triple-digit gains to break into the top 10 memecoin rankings.
Before the surge, Dogecoin reached its 2023 peak of $0.094 on April 19. But since then, while the broader memecoin market gained momentum, DOGE has lost a whopping 20%.
Here’s why the bears may push to validate a further bearish DOGE price prediction.
Dogecoin is Losing Market Share
Critical on-chain indicators show that Dogecoin appears to have been losing significant market share over the past three weeks. Since the recent price peak on April 15, the number of Daily Active Users (DAU) on the Dogecoin network has declined steeply.
Between April 19 and May 7, DOGE active users have dropped 41% from 77,325 to 44,506, according to the on-chain data illustrated below.
Daily Active Users measures the number of unique wallet addresses interacting on a blockchain network. When it begins to decline persistently, it signals that the project is losing market share to competitors.
If memecoin investors continue to look toward alternative assets, Dogecoin could witness a further price downswing.
Dogecoin Holders Can Take More Losses
Furthermore, historical on-chain data also shows that current Dogecoin investors may be willing to continue selling despite the current low prices.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV 30d) data shows that most investors that bought DOGE in the past 30 days are currently 11% underwater.
But trading data from the recent USDC depeg event in March has shown that DOGE holders may take up to 20% losses before they stop selling.
The MVRV data evaluates current token holders’ financial position to reveal their unrealized losses or profits.
Going by the historical data presented above, DOGE bearish traders could remain in control until the DOGE price drops by another 10%.
DOGE Price Prediction: All Eyes on $0.068
Considering the prices that bearish traders have placed their active sell-orders, $0.068 seems the most likely DOGE price prediction for the coming weeks.
The Exchange On-chain Market Depth chart below shows that the Dogecoin price is likely to decline by another 10% to reach $0.068. At that point, the bullish support from 52.5 million DOGE active buy orders could stop the bleeding.
If the bearish DOGE price prediction is validated, it could end up sliding 20% toward $0.063. However, the active buy orders of 88 million DOGE could finally trigger a rebound at this price.
Yet, the bulls could invalidate the current bearish trend if the Dogecoin price can surge by 10% to break above $0.082. But the bearish traders that have placed active sell-orders for 73 million DOGE could prevent that.
If that resistance level can be breached, DOGE price prediction could turn bullish and reach $0.090. Although the sell-wall of 104 million coins mounted by traders who wish to sell once DOGE gains 20% could trigger another retracement,
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