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Cardano (ADA) Price Retests $0.30: Is this a Buying Opportunity?

3 mins
Updated by Ryan James
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In Brief

  • Cardano (ADA) price has failed to break above $0.30 since the SEC listed ADA as a security in its Coinbase lawsuit. 
  • Recent improvement in Weighted Sentiment suggests that Cardano is now approaching a tipping point.  
  • The aggregate order books of exchanges show that the bull could be on the verge of seizing the momentum.
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Cardano (ADA) price has made several unsuccessful attempts at $0.30 since the SEC labeled ADA a ‘security‘ in June. On-chain data reveals that ADA could offer another buying opportunity in the coming days. But, this time, can the bulls stay firmly in control? 

The social sentiment surrounding Cardano has gradually improved over the past month. Yet, the bulls have struggled to break above the $0.30 resistance. Is the ongoing rally another buying opportunity? 

Market Sentiment Surrounding Cardano is Improving

On-chain data shows that Cardano’s Weighted Sentiment slid to an all-time low of -3.01 on June 9 in the aftermath of the SEC lawsuit against Coinbase.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson and the dev team have made concerted efforts to address centralization concerns raised by the SEC. In recent weeks, the ADA community has responded positively. 

As of July 3, ADA Weighted Sentiment currently sits at -1.11. While the overall outlook is still largely hawkish, it is a 63% improvement compared to the all-time low recorded on June 9.

Cardano (ADA) Buying Opportunity. June 2023. | Weighted Sentient,
Cardano (ADA) Buying Opportunity. June 2023. | Weighted Sentient, Source: Santiment

Weighted Sentiment measures the overall market perception surrounding an asset by comparing the ratio of positive opinions to the negatives. 

The chart above shows the optimism surrounding ADA has continued to rise over the past few weeks. While the regulatory concerns are far from settled, strategic investors could interpret this as a safe juncture to enter the market again. 

If the Cardano team offers more decentralization and compliance assurances, the ADA price could retest $0.40 as market perception improves further. 

The Bulls are Wrestling Control from the Bears

After weeks in a bearish downtrend, the bulls now appear to wrest control of the market momentum. Albeit a small margin, the aggregate order books of exchanges show that the bulls have now placed more buy orders than market supply. 

Currently, the bulls have placed orders to purchase 57.7 million ADA coins. Meanwhile, the traders have only placed 57.1 million ADA coins up for sale. 

ADA Buying Opportunity, June 2023. Aggregate Exchange Order Books
ADA Buying Opportunity, June 2023. Aggregate Exchange Order Books. Source: IntoTheBlock

The Exchange on-chain market depth shows the aggregate buy and sell limit orders placed for an asset across recognized crypto exchanges. 

As seen above, the momentum between the buy and sell orders still quite hangs in the balance. As things stand, demand only outpaces supply by a small margin of 600,000 ADA. 

However, considering the improvement in general market sentiment, the bulls could take the Cardano buying opportunity and pile on more orders in the coming weeks. 

ADA Price Prediction: Too Soon to Target $0.40? 

While Cardano has flashed some bullish on-chain signals, it’s still too soon for the bulls to set lofty targets at reclaiming $0.40. This is because Cardano could face significant pushback around $0.32. 

At that zone, 421,170 investors that bought 3.44 billion ADA at the average price of $0.32 could book some profit. 

However, if the bulls can push aside that resistance, ADA could promptly reclaim $0.35. 

ADA Price Prediction,June 2023. IOMAP data.
ADA Price Prediction, June 2023. IOMAP data. Source: IntoTheBlock

Yet, the bears also have a good chance of forcing another downswing if the ADA price drops toward $0.25 again. Although, 96,480 investors that have bought 3.1 billion Cardano at the minimum price of $0.27 could prevent the drop. 

But if the support gives way, the ADA price could decline toward $0.25

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Ibrahim Ajibade
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is an experienced On-chain research analyst who began his career in Commercial Banking. He has worked with several Web3 startups and financial institutions —analyzing technical concepts and spectacular events that link the DeFi and TradFi worlds. He holds a Bachelors’ Degree in Economics and is currently pursuing an MSc. in Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies.
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