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Bitcoin Breaks Through $10,500, Reaches Important Fib Resistance

2 mins
Updated by Kyle Baird
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In Brief

  • BTC has reached the 0.382 Fib level of the previous decrease.
  • Short-term indicators are showing considerable weakness.
  • The price has possibly completed wave 4 of a bearish five-wave formation.
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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been increasing since Sept. 8 and has finally reached the first notable Fib resistance level.
It’s possible that the BTC price has completed its upward bounce or is very close to doing so, and will likely soon resume its downward movement.

Bitcoin Shows Weakness

The Bitcoin price has been moving upwards since it reached a local low on Sept 8. The increase has been gradual but accelerated on Sept 14 when the price created a bullish engulfing candlestick. Since the drop from early September, BTC has only managed to reach a local high of $10,839. The price has reached the 0.382 Fib level of the entire decrease at $10,681. The next notable Fib level is 0.5 which can be found at $10,945. Technical indicators are undecided. The MACD is increasing, as is the slope of the Stochastic oscillator, even if it has not yet made a bullish cross. However, the RSI has been rejected by the 50-line and could possibly begin to move downwards.
Bitcoin Fib Retracement
BTC Chart By TradingView

Potential Fakeout

The shorter-term chart is more bearish. While the price has been making higher-highs, there is a bearish divergence in the MACD, Stochastic Oscillator, and the RSI, with the deviation being much more pronounced in the first two. This is a sign that the price is likely to eventually move downwards.
Bitcoin Bearish Divergence
BTC Chart By TradingView
In addition, BTC has possibly pulled a fakeout above the minor resistance level at $10,700 and is at risk of falling back below it. If it does, it could drop all the way to the closest minor support level at $10,250.
Bitcoin fakeout
BTC Chart By TradingView

Wave Counts

In BeInCrypto’s Sept. 11 analysis, we stated that:
The Bitcoin price likely began a bearish impulsive five-wave formation on Sept. 2 and currently is in wave 4, which is transpiring inside a complex corrective structure.
The complex correction has a W-X-Y structure (in red below). At the time of press, the price had reached a high of $10,831, which makes the ratio between the W and Y waves 1:1.61, a common level for such corrections. In addition, the 0.5 Fib level of wave 3 (orange) is found at $10,951, giving some Fib confluence for the current high.
Bitcoin Long-Term Count
BTC Chart By TradingView
A closer look at the movement reveals an A-B-C sub-wave (blue) correction inside the Y wave. Within this pattern, the A and C waves have a 1:1 ratio, confirming the previous Fib confluence and making this a likely level for a top.
Bitcoin Short-Term Count
BTC Chart By TradingView
Based on the length of waves 1-3, the target for the bottom of wave 5 would be at $9,983 (giving a truncated fifth) or $9,473 in the case of a regular wave 5. A breakdown below $9,450 would put the long-term bullish count at risk.
Bitcoin Targets
BTC Chart By TradingView
To conclude, it is possible that BTC has completed its upwards bounce and will decrease towards $9,700 or possibly $9,470. For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin analysis, click here!
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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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