Apecoin (APE) price slides to a new all-time low of $1.50 on Aug 17, bringing it 94% below its $23.65 peak attained just over a year ago. The on-chain analysis examines the chances of a possible price recovery in the coming weeks.
Apecoin (APE) is an ERC-20 token native to the popular Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFT ecosystem. Underwhelming demand in the global NFT market and the altcoin market downturn in recent weeks have combined to condemn APE to a new all-time low on August 17.
What are the chances that APE Coin will attract the attention of eagle-eyed crypto investors looking to buy undervalued altcoins in the coming weeks?
The APE Coin Sell-Off May Not Be Over Yet
According to on-chain data, Apecoin long-term holders began to abandon ship when the price first tested $2 around mid-June.
In an indication of this, Santiment’s chart below depicts how APE Mean Coin Age began to decline around June 14. And between June 14 and August 18, it has now dropped by 46% from 56.59 to 34.50.
Mean Coin Age gauges the confidence among long-term investors in a blockchain network.
It is derived by computing the average number of days that coins in circulation have spent in their current wallet addresses. As seen above, a persistent decline signals that many existing investors are exiting their positions.
With the downtrend in APE Mean Coin Age yet to abate, strategic investors will anticipate more sell-offs in the coming days. If Apecoin slides further in the coming days, chances of an early rebound will drop significantly.
Strategic Investors May Stage Recovery Mission After Further 15% Decline
Historical trading patterns from the previous significant APE price crash in mid-June provide vital insights about the chances of an imminent recovery.
The Market Value to the Realized Value (MVRV) ratio provides historical insights into investors’ profit-taking and loss-avoidance habits.
According to the MVRV chart below, Apecoin traders have shown an appetite for maximum losses of up to 32% during the previous price crash in June.
At the current price of $1.55, most holders that bought APE within the last 30-days are holding unrealized losses of about -16%. If the recent historical patterns repeat, they could continue to sell before cutting their losses when the price drops to $1.30.
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APE Coin Price Prediction: Selling Frenzy Continues Until $1.30
The on-chain stats outlined above suggest that as ApeCoin Slides to all-time lows, the price will likely hit $1.30 before the bulls recover.
The Exchange On-chain Market Depth chart, which shows the price distribution of current active orders, also confirms this bearish outlook.
As shown below, strategic crypto traders have placed cumulative orders to buy 487,230 APE tokens when the price drops to $1.40.
But, if the industry-wide bearish momentum grows, it will likely drive APE price further toward $1.30 before a rebound.
Conversely, the Apecoin bulls could potentially stage an early recovery attempt if APE reclaims $3.
But, as shown above, crypto traders have opened orders to sell 473,150 APE once the price hits $2. Without sufficient demand, they will likely slow down the recovery mission.
However, if APE scales that $2 resistance, the bulls could push for the $3 target.
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