At BeInCrypto, we publish regular price analyses and predictions for various cryptoassets. In our Apr 16 analysis of Stellar lumens (XLM), we predicted the price would decrease. Our prediction was invalidated the next day when the price broke out from the triangle we defined.  In this analysis, we take a look at XLM/USD($) and XLM/EUR(€) to predict possible price fluctuations.

On Apr 16 2019, the price of Stellar Lumens reached a low of $0.11 and €0.097. A gradual increase ensued and the price reached a high of $0.12 and €0.106 on Apr 18.

XLM/EUR Prices: Apr 15 – Apr 18
XLM/USD Prices: Apr 15 – Apr 18

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Will the price of Stellar lumens keep going up or should we expect a reversal soon?

Let’s find out:

Stellar Lumens (XLM): Highlights for April 18, 2019

  • The price of Stellar lumens has been on an uptrend since Apr 16.
  • Since then, XLM has been trading inside an ascending channel.
  • It is trading inside a longer-term horizontal channel.
  • There is bullish divergence developing in the RSI and the MACD.
  • There is resistance near $0.125 and €0.11.

Current Trading Pattern for Stellar Lumens

In this section, we analyze the price of XLM/USD at 30-minute intervals from Apr 15 to Apr 18 to trace the current trading pattern. In order not to create confusion, we will not be using images of the XLM/EUR pair until the summary, where the relevant resistance and support areas will be shown in dollars and euros.

On Apr 15, the price reached a low of $0.10. A gradual decrease ensued, and the price made several higher lows. Tracing these lows gives us an ascending support line:

On Apr 15, the price reached a high of $0.113. Several market cycles have been completed since and the price has reached the same level three times.

Tracing these highs gives us an ascending resistance line.

The support and resistance lines combine to create an ascending channel:

It is likely that the price will keep trading inside the confines of this ascending channel until a decisive move occurs. In order to predict the direction of the move, we need to take a look at a longer time frame combined with technical indicators.

Technical Indicators

In this section, we will analyze the price of XLM/USD at two-hour intervals from Apr 10 to Apr 18 alongside the MACD and the RSI.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move.

The relative strength index (RSI) is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market.

Both are shown in the charts below:

The price has been trading inside a horizontal channel since Apr 11.

The price made a low of $0.111 on Apr 11. It made a lower low of $0.109 on Apr 15.

Similarly, the RSI and the MACD made the first low on Apr 11. However, they have continued to generate higher values since.

This is known as bullish divergence and often precedes price increases.

The use of these indicators suggests that the price will eventually break out from the channel. However, it is possible that it first drops to the support line before continuing its upward move.

Resistance Areas

To determine the actual possible future price levels, we incorporate resistance areas into the analysis.

Resistance areas are created when the price visits the same level several times. If a breakdown occurs, they can create possible areas of reversal.
These are shown in the graph below for both XLM/EUR and XLM/USD:
XLM/EUR Resistance
XLM/USD Resistance

The closest resistance area is found near $0.125 and €0.1. We believe that the price is likely to reach this area in the future.

However, a drop towards $0.11 and €0.098 is possible before a breakout.

Summary of Analysis

Based on this analysis, the price of Stellar lumens is likely to keep trading inside the confines of the horizontal channel. Price drops may precede greater price gains. When the gains occur, we may see a breakout. However, a breakdown appears unlikely.

Do you think the price of XLM will break out from the channel? Let us know in the comments.

If you’re interested in Stellar lumens price predictions for 2019 and 2020, click on the green button below:

LONG-TERM XLM/USD ANALYSIS

Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.