Head of research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, discussed cryptocurrency regulation in the US following the firm’s recent move to file for a Solana spot ETF.
Spot ETFs are the latest wave of financial instruments in the US. They offer institutional players exposure to crypto assets amid the country’s stringent regulatory environment.
Solana ETF Approval: Insights from VanEck
Sigel says a Solana ETF is a possibility, given how smoothly Ethereum ETF applications are going, as told by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair, Gary Gensler. His optimism is based on the assumption that the same qualities that qualify ETH as a commodity also apply to SOL.
“If these products [ETH ETFs] are allowed to trade, then that confirms that Ethereum is a commodity. And the same thing will be true of Solana as well,” said Sigel, talking to Sonali Basak and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Crypto.
According to Sigel, Solana’s lack of a Futures Market, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, should not be an obstacle. This echoes what he said in a recent interview, that the US SEC should consider using the 19b4 forms used in approving Bitcoin spot ETFs in January.
This is as opposed to focusing on whether Solana has a regulated futures market. Reportedly, the same happened for the ETH ETF applications.
Further, Sigel highlights that multiple other ETFs exist despite being irrelevant, mentioning shipping, uranium, and power ETFs. The VanEck researcher also called for a “change in the regulatory environment in Washington,” alluding that the buck stops with the SEC chair.
“It all depends on the SEC chair. If Gensler is still the SEC chair, it is not going to happen unless he has been given instructions to treat this asset class differently,” Sigel said.
Read more: 13 Best Solana (SOL) Wallets To Consider in July 2024
Amid the expectation that a change in administration would favor crypto, Sigel is not alone on this thought. Galaxy Digital and Bloomberg analysts also continue to express skepticism, with the Eric Balchunas citing regulatory and political challenges.
“Yes, the odds of a SOL ETF being approved in next 12 months are tied at the hip to the odds of a change in POTUS and safe to say the chances of both are higher today then they were yesterday.. Although we not giving any exact number on this yet. Way too early,” Balchunas wrote.
Standard Chartered Bank’s head of FX and digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, also shares a similar perspective for Bitcoin. He said the BTC price could hit $100,000 by the time the US presidential election in November comes.
However, Kendrick’s forecast hinges on President Joe Biden remaining in the presidential race past August 4. According to Ohio law, this is the deadline for presidential candidate registration. If Biden remains the Democratic nominee on this date, he could stay in the race until November.
SOL Could Lead In Market Share
Highlighting VanEck’s forte in designing intelligent investment products, Sigel indicated that the firm’s research favors Solana in the race for blockchains with the largest market share. In retrospect, a Solana ETF could bolster this position. Meanwhile, the possibility of a SOL ETF is already ramping up SOL’s status among traders and investors.
“I’m working on my portfolio, but the final price won’t be set until next year. My plan: stocks and an ETF (Palantir and Tesla, I already have the former), BTC, Solana, gold and overnight money,” an investor remarked on X (formerly Twitter).
On market share metrics, if the US SEC resorts to a first-come, first-served approach, the Solana ETF could hit the market before the Ethereum ETF goes live. Sigel highlighted this thesis, given that VanEck is the first to file for a Solana ETF, just as it did with ETH ETF.
Read more: Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030
Meanwhile, ignoring the already visible changes in the regulatory environment is impossible. Specifically at the elected official level, multiple Democrats are already voting for pro-crypto legislation. This is a step in the right direction, despite speculation that it is a political imperative as presidential campaigns catch steam.
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