Technical Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Market Bottom Is Near

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In Brief
  • Bitcoin is trading below a number of major technical indicators.

  • It could be the first monthly close below the 200W MA ever.

  • BTC miner selling may not be over just yet.

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Crypto markets may not be at the bottom of this cycle yet, but a number of technical indicators are suggesting that it isn’t far away.

Total crypto market capitalization recovered marginally over the weekend to reclaim the psychological $1 trillion level. However, it is too early for hopium as markets retreated again during today’s Asian trading session.

Markets have been consolidating around this level for the past fortnight, and a number of technical indicators are starting to signal that the bottom of this current cycle could be close. BTC itself is holding above $21,000 at the time of writing.

A weekly green candle for bitcoin would usually be cause for a little celebration, but the fact that it closed below the 200-week moving average does not bode well for the bulls.

Bitcoin breaking bottom indicators

However, a bearish crossover of the 20-week and 100-week moving averages has previously been the bellwether for macro-market bottoms. This could suggest that a little more pain is imminent before a few months of consolidation leading to a lift off the bottom later this year or early next.

In a report late last week, Glassnode noted that bitcoin and Ethereum have traded below their previous cycle peaks making this a “bear of historic proportions.”  

On June 26, lead on-chain analyst at the firm, “Checkmate”, observed that bitcoin is trading below three indicators that have previously coalesced around bear market bottoms. These are the previously mentioned 200-week moving average, its Realized Price, and the 0.6 Mayer Multiple.

“Such events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days.”

PlanB, whose infamous stock-to-flow model is close to being invalidated, observed that a June monthly candle close below the 200-week moving average would be the first time ever this has happened.

Furthermore, the deviation from bitcoin’s two-year exponential moving average is currently the second-lowest in history at 49% below.

Observing dominance

Veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt took a look at BTC market dominance suggesting a close back above 50% would be a “huge positive.”

BTC dominance is currently 43.4% according to Tradingview. It dropped below 40% in Jan but has yet to reclaim 50% despite altcoins getting hit harder in the market slump.

BTC is currently trading 69.2% down from its Nov all-time high. It fell to around 84% off its peak in Dec 2018 during the depth of the last crypto winter. If the miners have not exhausted their selling yet, another fall below $20K is inevitable.

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Martin has been covering the latest developments on cyber security and infotech for two decades. He has previous trading experience and has been actively covering the blockchain and crypto industry since 2017.

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