Despite the bearish altcoin market and steeper declines, Litecoin (LTC) could sustain its long-term uptrend. For this to happen, the LTC price must validate the symmetrical triangle formation and initiate a bounce.
Breaking through the long-term resistance area in the $100 to105 range would indicate a strong signal of the start of a new bull market.
However, losing the key support level at $65 would mean a breakdown of the upward structure and a possible return to the June 2022 lows.
Litecoin Uptrend Struggles to Hold
The weekly chart shows that Litecoin has been rising since hitting a low of $40.30 in June 2022. Since then, a year-long period of accumulation has begun, which seems to be forming the basis for a new uptrend.
First, the LTC price has generated three higher highs (HH) and three higher lows (HL). If the price does not fall below the previous low of $65, the ongoing decline could be the fourth higher low in what has the potential to begin a long-term uptrend.
On the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range) chart, the $65 level is particularly important and represents long-term support (red line). The VPVR indicator is used for volume trading and proves effective for trading large capitalization assets.
On the other hand, the Litecoin uptrend has already been rejected three times from the long-term resistance area in the $100 to105 range (red rectangle).
Moreover, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken down from the rising support line (black), which has been in place since the June 2022 lows. Moreover, it is below 50, which is a signal of a bearish trend.
Finally, the trading volume appears to have been steadily declining since the ATH and subsequent May 2021 low. The pattern of declining volume (blue line) appears to be maturing, suggesting that a sharp impulsive move is imminent.
The volume signature, however, remains neutral on the direction of the expected move.
LTC Price in a Symmetrical Triangle
Technical analysis from the daily interval confirms the mixed signals from the weekly. First of all, the LTC price seems to be in a neutral symmetrical triangle formation. The probability of breakout and breakdown from such a formation is similar.
However, in favor of a bearish interpretation is the fact that Litecoin is currently trading at the lower edge of this formation and even seems to be losing it.
If a decline occurs, holding the aforementioned $65 level (green line) to sustain the uptrend will be crucial. It has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in the past.
On the other hand, the trading volume signature supports a bullish interpretation. Analyzing the daily trading volume since May 2022, we see that on June 10, 2023, Litecoin generated the fourth-largest red candle.
All previous such large red candles signaled capitulation and a market bottom (blue arrows).
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Thus, if Litecoin maintains the validity of the symmetrical triangle formation, the ongoing move may just be a correction after the increases from earlier this year.
This is the interpretation suggested by cryptocurrency market analyst @CryptoTony__, who posted his chart on Twitter. According to him, once both edges of the formation are re-confirmed, the LTC price may break out to the upside.
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