Low Bitcoin Volatility Mirrors Late-2018 Activity

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In Brief
  • Bitcoin has shown extremely low volatility over the past 10 days.

  • The last time this type of low volatility occurred, Bitcoin lost nearly 50% of its value in the month that followed.

  • Bitcoin's stability during this unprecedented crisis makes it an interesting anomaly among assets.

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Notoriously volatile, Bitcoin has seen a spate of stability over the past months. The realized volatility over the past 10 days has remained at just 16%.



This figure indicates that price fluctuations over the past 10 days have been less than 1% in either direction on any given day.

BTCUSD Realized Volatility Chart by Skew.

Generally, lower volatility is considered an attractive quality for an asset. With Bitcoin often being hailed as ‘digital gold,’ and a safe haven asset, its erratic volatility tends to speak otherwise.



However, the current statistic is not entirely encouraging. The last time Bitcoin saw this level of stability was in November of 2018. Shortly after that time, Bitcoin lost nearly 50% of its value in the span of just over a month.

The store-of-value asset rhetoric has been relatively toned down recently with industry insiders like Tyler Winklevoss repudiating the claim. Additionally, Bitcoin’s lock-step with equities markets has made the claims of asset structure less tenable.

Nevertheless, volatility often falls short as a predictor of future price movements. With other markets in a state of flux, Bitcoin’s low volatility remains an anomaly.


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With a background in science and writing, Jon's cryptophile days started in 2011 when he first heard about Bitcoin. Since then he's been learning, investing, and writing about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology for some of the biggest publications and ICOs in the industry. After a brief stint in India, he and his family live in southern CA.

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