Litecoin’s (LTC) price struggles to break above the $65 resistance following its 12% rebound from the two-year low of $58 in mid-September. On-chain data reveals key indicators that need to change for LTC price resurgence to hit $80.
Litecoin miners and whale investors are two prominent blocs of stakeholders in the peer-to-peer payments network. Recently, both factions have been taking on the opposite disposition on LTC. How could this impact Litecoin’s price in the coming weeks?
Litecoin Whales Maintain Positive Disposition Despite Underwhelming Price Action
Litecoin whale investors have maintained a fairly optimistic disposition despite the underwhelming price performance in recent months. On-chain data shows that the Litecoin network recorded 1,008 Large Transactions on September 2023.
Notably, this was the highest since July 14, when the crypto markets reacted positively to Ripple’s (XRP) famous victory over the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The Adjusted Whale Transactions metric aggregates the total value of confirmed trades exceeding $100,000 on a given trading day while excluding amounts returned to the original address. Typically, an increase in whale transactions is bullish for an asset’s price, as it boosts liquidity, allowing market participants to execute trade efficiently.
However, the chart above illustrates a negative divergence between Litecoin price and Whale transactions since mid-August.
Among other possible reasons, bearish miners flooding the market with newly mined coins could potentially trigger a price downtrend amid record whale transactions.
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Litecoin Miners Have Started Selling Again
When Litecoin price dropped below $58 on September 11, Litecoin miners had depleted their holding to just 2 million coins, the lowest in three months.
However, on-chain data reveals that by September 21, LTC price rebounded 12% to hit $65 as the miners switched to buying mode.
Notably, they accumulated 230,000 coins worth approximately $14.7 million during that period. But since Litecon’s price appears to have stagnated around the $65 mark.
Miner Reserves tracks the changes in cumulative balances in addresses linked to recognized miners and mining pools. A decline in Miners’ reserve balances is a bearish signal indicating that miners are actively selling off newly minted coins.
As seen above, the LTC price appears to have stagnated at the $65 range as the miners enter sell-off mode again. They have sold off another 5,000 LTC worth $320,000 in the seven trading days between September 21 and September 26.
Notably, Litecoin miners currently control 2.18 million LTC, totaling 2.6% of the total circulation supply of 84 million. Hence, for the LTC price to reclaim $80, the Miners may have to mirror the whales’ positive disposition, as observed in mid-September.
LTC Price Prediction: Possible Rebound Toward $80
From an on-chain standpoint, Litecoin price will likely rally toward $80 if the Miners and the Whale investors simultaneously take on a bullish disposition.
The Global In/Out of Money Around Price (GIOM) data, which depicts the entry price distribution of current Litecoin holders, also validates this bullish thesis.
It shows that if the LTC price scales the current resistance at $66, the bulls could ride the wave toward $75.
As shown below, 313,420 addresses had bought 4.04 million LTC coins at the maximum price of $66. If the miners keep selling, they could inadvertently force a prolonged consolidation around the $60 – $64 range.
But if the Miners flip bullish, Litecoin’s price will likely break above $80 as predicted.
Conversely, the bears could seize control if the Litecoin price drops below $50. However, as depicted above, 187,000 addresses had bought 1.73 million LTC coins at the minimum price of $60.33. To avoid a historic reversal to $50, they will likely make frantic efforts to cover their positions
But if the Litecoin price fails to hold steady at that vital support level, it could eventually drop below $50.
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