After surpassing $111,000, Bitcoin’s price has shown signs of stalling over the past two weeks. Some investors have begun to worry about a potential “Double Top” scenario.
This technical pattern often signals a sharp reversal, similar to what happened in 2021. However, experienced analysts argue that this concern is unfounded. They believe the current market conditions are entirely different from four years ago.
Why a 2021-style double top scenario is unlikely in 2025
As BeInCrypto recently reported, certain divergence signals have emerged. These suggest that Bitcoin could reverse course in June. If this happens, it will complete a double-top pattern and potentially lead to a correction of over 70%, just like in 2021.
However, analyst Stockmoney Lizards believes the RSI-based divergence signal is unreliable. He points out that this indicator has failed to predict market tops correctly in most past cases.
“Want to know what I found? This thing has been dead wrong most of the time. 2015: ‘Divergence means top!’ – BTC went up 10x. 2017: ‘This divergence is different!’ – BTC kept pumping for months. 2019: ‘Finally confirmed!’ – Another 4x move incoming. The only time it actually worked was 2021. That’s 1 out of 5. So we’re supposed to sell everything based on an indicator that’s failed 80% of the time?” Stockmoney Lizards said.
Besides questioning the reliability of technical indicators, he also highlights some overlooked positive signals. For instance, the number of active wallet addresses has surged, suggesting growing participation from both retail and institutional investors.
Moreover, the MVRV Z-Score—an on-chain metric that gauges Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its fair value—is currently low. Historically, this indicates that Bitcoin is not overvalued and still has room for growth.
Beyond technical and on-chain indicators, Thomas Fahrer, founder of ApolloSats, points to fundamental differences between now and 2021. He explains that the 2021 market suffered from multiple negative events.
Several factors contributed to Bitcoin’s decline after its peak. These included the collapse of the Luna project, a well-known Ponzi scheme, FTX’s sale of “paper Bitcoin” without actual backing, and the rapid increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve to combat inflation.
Together, these circumstances created an unstable environment for cryptocurrency, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin’s value.
However, Fahrer emphasizes that 2025 is a completely different story. He notes that the market now enjoys strong support from positive developments. These include the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, large corporations buying billions of dollars in Bitcoin as reserves, and even some US states building Bitcoin treasuries. These moves represent a major structural shift.
Bitcoin is now becoming a trusted asset among institutions, not just a speculative tool like in the past.
“The 2021 double top comparison is dumb,” Thomas Fahrer stated.
Stockmoney Lizards shares Fahrer’s view about the supportive role of institutional capital in 2025.
At first glance, the price chart might resemble the one from 2021. This could easily trigger concerns among technical analysts. But market dynamics constantly evolve and are never the same.
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