With many people calling for an ‘Alt Season,’ a period in which alternate coins increase significantly, we are going to analyze the performance of five of the top 10 alternative cryptocurrencies during the previous Bitcoin (BTC) uptrend. This is done in order to predict the timing for when the money will start flowing into alternate coins and initiate an uptrend.
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Bitcoin Price in 2018
The price of BTC experienced a significant uptrend throughout most of 2017. In December, it reached a high of nearly $20,000.
Many alternate coins experienced significant increases. However, they mostly occurred after BTC had reached its top.
As is visible in the graph below, the highest gains were experienced by Tron (TRX), which in early Jan 2018 grew by 3300 percent against BTC.
Cardano (ADA) and EOS (EOS) also experienced increases above 1000 percent but did not come close to reaching the highs of TRX.
Ethereum (ETH) came in last, but at one period it still had increased by close to 400 percent.
What is interesting is that most of these gains began around two weeks after BTC reached its high. More precisely, they began during the B wave of BTC’s A-B-C correction.
Let’s take a look at the current uptrend and check for similarities.
Bitcoin Price in 2019
While BTC has likely reached a short-term top, most alternate coins have not yet begun to increase.
To the contrary, they all have lost value against BTC — the amounts of losses ranging from 17 to 46 percent.
ADA and TRX have been the biggest losers, with losses of 45 and 48 percent respectively.
If the price of alternate coins follows a similar pattern to last year, the period of gains should begin at the end of this week/beginning of the next one and continue throughout the month.
Let’s take a look at each asset individually and compare their position to the one prior to the upward move in 2018.
For Ethereum, we can see that on Dec 2017 the price made a low near ₿0.027. In slightly more than a month, it had reached a high of ₿0.12.
Currently, the price has again dropped to the ₿0.027 level. This is the fourth time it has done so.
Therefore, ETH is in the exact same position as it was before the Dec 2017/Jan 2018 bull run.
Judging by BTC’s current price movement, it is expected that ETH will begin an upward move soon.
At the beginning of December 2017, the price of ADA made a low near 750 satoshis.
An upward move began and a high of 9000 satoshis was reached the following month.
Currently, ADA has yet to begin an uptrend.
However, similar to ETH, it has reached a value of around 790 satoshis. This is the same level as before the 2018 upward move.
Therefore, we would expect an uptrend to begin soon for ADA.
In December 2017, TRX reached a low of 29 satoshis. A massive uptrend began soon after and the price eventually reached a high of 2000 satoshis.
The TRX price has not reached levels close to 27 satoshis since.
However, it has created a support level near 300 satoshis since July 2018. At the time of writing, the price touched this support line for the fourth time.
While it is possible that TRX will begin a massive uptrend, it has a higher potential for losses than both ETH and ADA.
In December 2017, the price of EOS reached a low near 2200 satoshis. An upward move began shortly after, and the price reached a high above 24,000 satoshis.
Similar to TRX, the price of EOS has not reached values close to 2000 satoshis again.
However, it has created a support level near 6000 satoshis since March 2018.
At the time of writing, it has touched this line for the fourth time.
Continuing the similarities with TRX, EOS has high potential for both losses and gains.
If the support line fails to hold, EOS could see significant losses in the future.
During the 2018 bull run, most alternate coins increased significantly in value. These gains, however, occurred after BTC had reached a high.
During the current uptrend, most alternate coins have not yet begun to increase.
Judging by their current positive relative to 2018, ETH and ADA look like the safer bets for massive increases — without significant downside potential.
Which altcoin do you think will have the highest rate of increase? Let us know in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
Images are courtesy of Shutterstock, TradingView.