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These Crypto Analysts Failed to Time Bitcoin in May 2023

2 mins
Updated by Ryan Boltman
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In Brief

  • Negentropic's prediction of a bullish market surge occurring in May turned out to be unsuccessful.
  • The Moon Carl unsuccessfully predicted that the Bitcoin price will break down from a descending triangle.
  • The Bitcoin price traded between $30,000 and $26,000. The difference between the opening and closing price was -7%.
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These two crypto analysts failed to make accurate predictions for the crypto market in May, particularly regarding the Bitcoin (BTC) price.


Forecasting the direction of the cryptocurrency market is difficult because of its considerable fluctuations and sometimes lack of correlation with broader economic trends.

These two analysts made predictions about the crypto market in May that were untrue. 

Negentropic’s Bullish Move Does Not Materialize

On-chain crypto analyst @Negentropic suggested on May 17 that a bullish movement will soon materialize for the Bitcoin price.

His reasons came from the fact that despite a price fall, the number of shorts decreased simultaneously with an increase in longs. Additionally, open interest was increasing.

An increasing open interest during price consolidation usually leads to a sharp movement in one or the other direction. Due to the decrease in shorts, the idea was that this movement will transpire to the upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movement
BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

While the reasons behind the idea are sound, the increase never materialized. On the contrary, a small decrease transpired after the day of the prediction (white line), which was followed by a slight upward movement.

The price is now trading at the same level as it was on May 17. While open interest is still increasing gradually (white arrow), a move has not yet materialized.

TheMoonCarl’s Failed Descending Triangle

Well-known crypto analyst @TheMoonCarl tweeted a chart of a descending triangle pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. The descending triangle is considered a bearish pattern.

While he did not specify a target for it, a movement that travels its entire height would lead to a low of $22,600.

However, the BTC price did not break down from it (red circle). Rather, it created a long lower wick. After another failed breakdown attempt (green circle), the price actually reclaimed the triangle’s support line and moved to its resistance line (red icon).

Nevertheless, the triangle is not invalidated yet. After the rejection from its resistance line, the price has nearly reached the support line once again. So, a breakdown is still possible.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Descending Triangle
BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

As outlined previously, a breakdown that travels the entire triangle’s height would lead to lows near $22,600. On the other hand, a breakout from the triangle’s resistance line will invalidate the bearish price prediction.

If that happens, it will likely lead to an increase to $29,600.

For BeInCrypto’s latest crypto market analysis, click here.

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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