Cryptocurrency traders are forever looking for reliable indicators to help them time their market entries and exits. Seemingly trivial, yet with surprising accuracy, the hosts of CNBC’s “Fast Money” have served as such a signal in the past.
The theory, documented in 2018 by trader and Forbes contributor Jacob Canfield, is that a bullish CNBC corresponds with an imminent drop in Bitcoin price. Similarly, the opposite held true during the period Canfield studied.
In a post made to the charting website TradingView, Canfield presented a chart of Bitcoin’s price performance from late 2017 to mid-2018. [TradingView] The trader overlaid instances in which CNBC expressed clearly bullish or overly bearish sentiment.
With a startling 95 percent accuracy over the period in question, a bearish CNBC lined up with bullish price action, and a bullish CNBC coincided with a drop in prices. Canfield wrote:
“Almost every singletweet we’ve seen has been at the top of nearly every single rally, giving us a very strong sell signal. With every tweet we see, it has been a clear indicator of a short reversal and end of a rally.”
In the most recent edition of CNBC’s “Fast Money”, sentiment from the panel was more than a little optimistic. In less than two minutes, the five panelists hit upon just about every popular bullish argument for Bitcoin from the last year or two.
The traders and presenters highlighted issues reported frequently by BeInCrypto. Amongst other topics, they mentioned: Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, growing institutional interest in the industry, central bank-issued digital currencies, and the leading cryptocurrency’s similarities to gold.
Podcaster and Morgan Creek Digital Assets co-founder Anthony Pompliano highlighted just how bullish the panelists seem to have become on Bitcoin:
“In a world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.”
"In a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In a world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor."
(@APompliano) February 12, 2020
Although not a major dip, Bitcoin has indeed traded downwards since the segment aired. Still trading for more than $10,100 at the time of writing, the cryptocurrency dropped from a local high of more than $10,420 earlier Thursday.
For now, the price drop is considerably smaller than many of those Canfield documented during 2018. However, trading using the unconventional indicator would still have yielded a profit.