Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) is between 69 and 73 days from its next cycle bottom. He bases that estimate on Bitcoin’s current cycle-day count of 1,363.
The prior two cycles bottomed on day 1,432 and day 1,436, respectively. That places Cowen’s projected low near October 2026.
Why Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottom Call Faces Pushback
Cowen’s day-count model has become a go-to reference for traders. Historically, he has argued the current cycle topped within a week of the prior two cycles. He used that timing to defend the four-year cycle framework.
He has made that case before.
Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead.
Cowen made the comment earlier this year, and is still holding to it as it approaches.
Bitcoin is Showing Signs
Cowen has also flagged August and September as historically weak months. In past midterm election years, Bitcoin fell an average of roughly 10% in August. September has typically added further, smaller losses before any recovery began.
However, not every analyst agrees the old clock still applies. Fidelity has pointed to new lows in one-year volatility appearing just months after Bitcoin’s record high. That pattern, the firm says, never showed up in earlier cycles.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has gone further. He argues that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury demand have weakened the old halving cycle. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook made a similar case, citing steady ETF inflows as evidence the boom-bust pattern no longer holds cleanly.
Still, Cowen’s recent research paper argues the floor has barely moved across four cycles, even as blow-off tops have flattened. Whether that holds through October will decide which camp was right this time.
Bitrue