BTC appears to have hit a roadblock as the price stagnated at $28,000 in the past week. A profit-taking frenzy among long-term Bitcoin holders and declining whale activity pose roadblocks to the ongoing rally. Can the bulls remain resilient?
Bitcoin bulls are facing fierce resistance at the $28,500 zone as long-term holders sell.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Selling
BTC has had a positive start to the year, ranking as the best-performing asset class for Q1 2023. However, macro factors such as US prosecutors’ impending auctioning of seized 40,000 Bitcoin have coincided with critical bearish on-chain signals to pose a roadblock to the ongoing price rally.
A sell-off frenzy among holders who had bought since mid-2022, when BTC was last around the current prices, is posing a major concern. Rising values of Age Consumed have been recorded on the Bitcoin network, according to Santiment. After a largely neutral start to the year, the Age Consumed indicator began to rise in early March 2023.
The chart below shows how Bitcoin Age Consumed rose from 2.57 million on Feb 25 to 13.21 million at the start of April. Notably, it recorded its 2023 high of 24.48 on March 7.
Age Consumed is a metric that tracks previously dormant or long-held movement on specific dates. It measures the total number of days since each traded coin was last moved between addresses, this is then multiplied by the time since they last moved. An increase in Age Consumed can suggest that long-term holders are starting to sell their coins.
The persistent rise may cause an oversupply of the BTC market and trigger price corrections, especially around milestone prices.
BTC Large Transactions on the Decline
Similarly, another concerning on-chain signal is the relative decline in large BTC transactions. According to IntoTheBlock, the number of Large Transactions involving BTC has been in a downtrend since BTC crossed $25,000.
As shown below, between March 14 and April 2, large Bitcoin transactions declined from 21,000 to 11,640 transactions.
A decline in large transactions suggests a dearth in demand and confidence from large investors. It is a bearish signal considering how large transactions provide liquidity to the Bitcoin market. A prolonged decline can potentially cause a price downswing in a mild-liquidity squeeze.
Summarily, bearish concerns may grow if long-term holders continue to take profits and whales remain MIA. BTC may experience more retracement before finally breaking above the $30,000 milestone.
BTC Price Prediction: Another Drop Below $27,000 Beckons.
BTC’s journey to $30,000 could be rocky, according to on-chain data from IntoTheBlock. The In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) data below shows BTC holders can expect another retracement below $27,000 in the coming weeks.
Notably, there is considerable resistance to Bitcoin at the $28,500 zone. Here, the data shows 1.37 million addresses seem to be actively taking profits on their 821,000 coins.
If that sell-off continues, BTC may retrace to find support at $26,800. This is the average price that 310,000 addresses had bought 250,000 BTC.
Still, the bulls may grow in confidence if BTC surges above $28,700. This is the maximum price that the 1.37 million resistance army had bought 821,000 bitcoin. A break above that zone could see BTC approach $30,300 with relative ease.
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