The bitcoin (BTC) price resumed its upward movement on Feb. 11 and proceeded to reach a new all-time high (ATH) price the next day.
While the trend has begun to show signs of weakness, it is likely that BTC will complete another upward move before correcting.
Bitcoin Daily Movement
On Feb. 11, BTC increased slightly, creating a bullish engulfing candlestick in the process. It followed it up the next day by reaching a new all-time high price of $48,985.
However, the signs of weakness are starting to emerge. The volume on the most recent increase was pretty low, and the daily RSI has generated bearish divergence.
Nevertheless, both the MACD & Stochastic Oscillator are still increasing, suggesting that the trend is still bullish despite the warning signs.
The shorter-term six-hour chart supports this possibility.
First, BTC is following an ascending support line, which is currently at $43,300. This is also the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the most recent portion of the upward move.
Second, both the RSI & MACD have generated considerable bearish divergence, a sign that a retracement is likely.
Therefore, it is possibly that BTC will return to revisit the ascending support line before potentially moving higher once more.
The wave count suggests that BTC is in wave five (white) of a bullish impulse that began in March 2020.
The sub-wave count is given in orange, indicating that BTC is in sub-wave three.
The most likely target for the top of the entire upward move is found between $63,800 and $66,500, found by using a Fib projection and external Fib retracement.
The next most likely target is found between $50,300 and $52,000, but due to the development of the sub-wave count, it is less likely.
A closer look reveals that BTC is likely in minor sub-wave five (black) of sub-wave three.
The most likely target for a local top would be near $53,000, before a more significant correction, and then a move towards $63,800 to $66,500.
A decrease below the sub-wave one high at $38,620 would indicate that the upward move has ended.
To conclude, while BTC seems to be approaching a potential local top, it seems that there is another short-term upward move left before BTC corrects. The most likely target for the top of the short-term move is found near $53,000.