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price predictions are always points of contention. However, when a reputable financial research firm such as Fundstrat makes one, it is time to pay attention.
Bitcoin prices have reclaimed the psychological $8,000 barrier again recently and continue to crank higher as weekend trading commences. Support held at $7,700 and the asset is on track to re-tap resistance at $8,400 if the bulls can keep up the buying pressure.
This could lead to longer-term gains and research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors is confident that they will be big in 2020.
Citing three major factors, company co-founder and Bitcoin bull Thomas Lee took to Twitter with the findings from the firm’s 2020 “Crypto Outlook.”
We published our 2020 Crypto outlook and made the full report available for our clients.
– bottom line: financial markets tend to discount 1-3 months, and maybe 6 months (max). So highest probability is halvening not priced in
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 10, 2020
The full version is reserved for company clients, but Lee gave us a teaser stating that there is a ‘strong probability’ that Bitcoin will see 100% gains in 2020. From current levels, that prediction would put it at a high of $16,000 before the end of the year.
The first major fundamental factor is the halving, which is due on May 13 according to the countdown. Lee is confident that the halving has not been priced in yet, which will lead to a surge at some time this year.
Previous halvings in 2012 and 2016 have resulted in post-event bull markets which pushed the asset to new all-time highs. Other economic models, such as stock to flow, also suggest that there will be a bull market following the block reward reduction and market perception of supply cut.
Geopolitical risks were another reason to be bullish on Bitcoin according to Fundstrat. Recent price movements which have been highly correlated to traditional store of value assets such as gold are clear evidence that BTC is becoming a safe haven.
This narrative is likely to continue as the year progresses, with geopolitical and economic tensions rising across the globe.
Thirdly, the market strategy research firm noted that an approaching US election could be bullish for cryptocurrencies. Lee did not expand on these findings but they could be related to crypto-friendly politicians and the notion of the US finally getting its finger out with regards to a regulatory framework.
There are a couple of other factors that could influence Bitcoin prices this year as well, which include the launch of more institutional products such as options and ETFs. Central banks delving further into their own digital currencies would increase overall awareness and adoption of cryptocurrencies overall.
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