The commonly-held view that a massive bull run will follow the Bitcoin halving in 2020 may not necessarily be accurate, claims a new study.
The study, conducted by blockchain research firm Messari, states that the Bitcoin ecosystem is continuously evolving, and it may not be a good idea to predict the impact of the next halving solely based on the impact of the previous two.
Uncertainties Over Bitcoin Halving 2020 Impact
Judging by past trends, Bitcoin usually gains an upward momentum a year into the halving event and a year out of it. Optimistic BTC proponents are finding merits in the idea that the asset’s relative success in 2019 was perfectly in tune with that trend.
As BeInCrypto previously reported, despite all the setbacks, Bitcoin distinguished itself as the best performing commodity in 2019. Many traders and analysts are of the view that if Bitcoin can carry on from there and hold steady over the next couple of months, odds are high it could enter a new bullish phase around or shortly after the next halving.
However, according to the Messari study, there is no fundamental reason as to why BTC should spike after the next halving, or any halving for that matter. It states that the “high stock-to-flow ratio“ argument, which is the basic logical construct often used to establish a link between the 2020 Bitcoin halving and the next major bull run, is inherently wrong.
High S2F Doesn’t Guarantee a Post-Halving Bull Run
For the uninitiated, the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio of a commodity is a metric that compares its total volume in inventory relative to the annual supply.
Bitcoin, just like gold, has a very high S2F ratio due to its scarcity-driven model. In fact, it is expected to become the commodity with the highest S2F ratio by 2025 as block rewards continue to decrease by 50% at the end of each halving.
The co-authors of the Messari study, however, are not convinced that the high S2F ratio means much in terms of future BTC price. According to them, being a terminally fixed supply asset, Bitcoin qualifies as a “perfectly inelastic good.”
They argue that miners are never in a position to control the net supply of the asset irrespective of market demand, or the lack thereof. The study then goes on, claiming that the only factor that can lead to the next Bitcoin bull run is an increase in demand rather than the predetermined 50% decrease in block rewards.