Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory has largely been positive since the US-Iran war, though it has also been volatile. On April 14, BTC briefly climbed above $76,000, its highest price level since early February.
Realized profits hit $1.14 billion during the spike, one of the year’s largest single-day readings. However, the gains failed to hold.
Similarly, BTC’s surge over $75,000 yesterday was met with resistance again. The price adjusted to $74,656 as of press time.
But what is hindering Bitcoin’s rally? According to on-chain signals, it’s short-term holders.
Why Short-Term Holders Are Capping Bitcoin’s Rally
Analyst Darkfost noted that Short-Term Holders (STHs) significantly ramped up exchange flows as BTC tested $75,000 on April 15. Within 24 hours, more than 65,000 BTC moved to exchanges, with 61,000 BTC sent in profit.
“For now, any price increase is being treated as an opportunity to exit the market, whether in profit or at a loss.Yesterday, profits dominated, with 61,000 BTC sent to exchanges in profit. At this stage, STHs remain highly reactive to price movements,” the analyst wrote.
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On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant identified the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price at $76,800 as a key resistance level. This metric reflects the average cost basis of short-term traders and has historically capped relief rallies, including the January 2026 bounce.
As BTC tested $76,000 earlier this week, hourly exchange inflows rose to approximately 11,000 BTC. This marked the highest reading since late December 2025. According to CryptoQuant, this is,
“A historically reliable warning signal of near-term selling pressure, as holders move coins to exchanges in preparation for potential distribution at key resistance zones.”
The average exchange deposit jumped to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since July 2024. Large individual transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC to Binance drove the increase.
Moreover, the share of large deposits as a percentage of total exchange inflows surged from below 10% to above 40% within days around the $76,000 level.
“Daily realized profits remain at approximately $500 million—below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks a significant profit realization spike in bear markets—suggesting that profit-taking has not yet peaked. If Bitcoin sustains near $76K or rallies further toward the $76.8K Traders’ Realized Price, realized profits could accelerate sharply, adding further near-term selling pressure,” the analysis added.
Glassnode’s weekly report reinforced this view. The 30-day EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is 1.16, indicating that investors are broadly selling into strength.
The firm identified the True Market Mean at $78,100 as the critical level for any sustained recovery. A move above that threshold would require the market to absorb the current wave of profit-taking on a sustained basis, something that would demand a significant catalyst, according to the report.
With short-term holders treating every rally as an exit opportunity and institutional participation still rebuilding, Bitcoin faces a clear supply overhang that must be absorbed before any structural trend change can develop.
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