Much to the joy of many downtrodden cryptocurrency investors, Bitcoin is regaining market capitalization and the overall market trend appears to be bullish.
However, just how bullish is it? Comparing current market conditions to that seen in 2017, it may be possible to tease out just where Bitcoin (BTC) is headed in the coming months.
Bitcoin On The Move
Rhythmtrader, an experienced cryptocurrency trader, recently shed some light on the momentum of the 2017 Bitcoin bull run. In total, BTC took a combined 28 days to climb from $8,000 to $18,000, despite intense competition from altcoins, scaling issues, and regulatory uncertainty.
Comparing this to the current market situation, the price has been hovering around the $8,000 mark for well over a week. It’s easy to see why many investors are anxiously waiting for BTC to hit the gas pedal.
Additionally, with Bitcoin’s fundamentals thought to have massively improved since its last bull run, it stands to reason that this run may peak higher than ever before, with BTC potentially reaching a new all-time high in the coming months.
According to the 80/20 principle, 80 percent of effects can be attributed to 20 percent of causes. In the world of cryptocurrency, this can be analogous to saying 20 percent of cryptocurrencies will benefit from 80 percent of the additional value gained during the next bull run.
Bitcoin, A Changing Beast
With Bitcoin’s market dominance approaching an 18-month high, there is little double that Bitcoin will be one of the major beneficiaries of new investments and speculation generated if the market fully recovers.
This is also supported by the impressive increase in BTC trading volume as of late. Bitcoin reached its highest daily trade volume in over a year earlier this month, clocking in $33 billion in trades in just 24 hours. Meanwhile, search volume for Bitcoin’s price has also spiked dramatically, showing a renewed interest in the cryptocurrency.
Beyond this, many avid Bitcoin users will remember a time when Bitcoin transaction fees rose to astronomical heights. During this time in 2017, the Bitcoin network buckled under huge transaction volume and mining fees rose to as much as $55 each.
However, since then, technical improvements to the Bitcoin network have been implemented. Fee estimates based on mempool data on second-layer payment protocols like the Lightning Network and CPFP functionalities are now available to greatly reduce fees.
Despite this, transaction fees are currently twice as high as they were two years ago, indicating we may see new all-time high average transaction fees in the coming months. Could this hinder further growth of the network? BTC and the entire crypto economy is certainly a very different beast from 2017, so growth may not necessarily follow the same trajectory.
How do you think BTC will move in 2019? Can it exceed its all-time high this year, or will it inevitably correct? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.