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Bitcoin Halving Narrative Strengthens, But More Pain Predicted First  

2 mins
Updated by Kyle Baird
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In Brief

  • Bitcoin halving cycle narrative is gaining traction with around six months to go; however, more pain is predicted before gain.
  • Analysts suggest a similar retrace to the 2016 cycle could see Bitcoin fall back to around $21,000 to $22,000 in the coming months.
  • Despite the hype around halving events, Binance boss Changpeng Zhao cautions that "Bitcoin price won't double overnight" post-halving.
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The Bitcoin halving cycle narrative is starting to bubble up with around six months to go before the big event. Analysts are starting to switch to more positive sentiment for the long term in what has been a long-drawn-out crypto winter.

On October 9, analyst “Rekt Capital” reported that the Bitcoin halving was 189 days away. However, this may vary slightly depending on which countdown is used. 

Previous Bitcoin Halving Cycles

Bitcoin markets are highly cyclical, so it stands to reason that some patterns may be repeated. The analyst looked into the 189-day period leading up to the 2016 halving. 

At this very same point in the cycle, “Bitcoin retraced -25% inside a new re-accumulation range,” he noted. This pre-halving re-accumulation period lasted until two months before the July 2016 event.

A retrace of similar magnitude during this cycle could see BTC fall back to around $21,000 to $22,000 over the next couple of months. 

2015 BTC halving cycle comparison. Source: X/@rektcapital
2015 BTC halving cycle comparison. Source: X/@rektcapital

Trader and analyst “CrediBULL Crypto” posted his technical analysis update on October 9, noting the resistance at higher levels before stating: 

“The direction we are headed here is clear imo, the real question is how low we will go.”

In the short-term, he targeted a revisit of the $26,500 zone again before attempting another push higher leading up to next year’s halving. 

Also talking about Bitcoin halvings was Binance boss Changpeng Zhao. He said that a new halving countdown had been added to the Binance home page. It was showing 192 days to go.

Zhao said that in his experience of three previous halvings, there would be “more and more chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope, etc,” leading up to the event. 

However, “Bitcoin price won’t double overnight,” the day after the halving, he added. 

“People will be asking why it didn’t. The year after the halving, Bitcoin price hits multiple ATH. And people ask why. People have short memories.”

In all previous cycles, the bull market peak has come the year after the halving, putting it in 2025 sometime.

More Pain Before Gain

Also on October 9, Analyst “Bluntz” told his 225,000 followers that the cycle bottom had already occurred. However, he also cautioned over another dip, adding: 

“We are in the 2019-2020 part of the cycle where we can still easily come down to $19-20k and put in a higher low and continue higher throughout 2024.”

BTC price prediction. Source: X/@Bluntz_Capital
BTC Price Prediction. Source: X/@Bluntz_Capital

Bitcoin has failed to break above $28,000 on three occasions over the past few days. 

The asset is currently hovering just below it at $27,889 at the time of writing, so down appears to be the path of least resistance for now. 

Moreover, in September, BeInCrypto also theorized that BTC market cycles were not linked to halving events.

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Martin Young
Martin Young is a seasoned cryptocurrency journalist and editor with over 7 years of experience covering the latest news and trends in the digital asset space. He is passionate about making complex blockchain, fintech, and macroeconomics concepts understandable for mainstream audiences.   Martin has been featured in top finance, technology, and crypto publications including BeInCrypto, CoinTelegraph, NewsBTC, FX Empire, and Asia Times. His articles provide an in-depth analysis of...