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Big Bitcoin Corrections Came Before Halving in Past Cycles, Will History Rhyme?

2 mins
Updated by Kyle Baird
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In Brief

  • Bitcoin's historical patterns suggest a large pullback may occur before the next halving event in April or May 2023.
  • Previous cycles saw BTC prices retract by 25% and 38% around six months prior to halving events in 2016 and 2020 respectively.
  • If history repeats, BTC could potentially plunge back to the $20,000 level during the pre-halving period.
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Bitcoin and crypto markets are highly cyclical, and patterns have emerged that have repeated every cycle so far. Bull markets have followed halving events, but a large pullback has come in the period just before them, which is about now. 

With around six months to go to the next Bitcoin halving in April or May next year, analysts are looking for signals from previous cycles.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles Repeat

On October 13, crypto trader and analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ posted a rather bleak reminder of what happened at the same point in previous cycles. 

With less than 190 days to go before the event, it could give us an indication of where prices are going for the rest of this year.

In 2015, BTC prices retraced 25% around six months before the 2016 halving. 

Furthermore, BTC prices dumped a whopping 38% in late 2019, which was also around six months before the 2020 halving. 

BTC pre-halving price action. Source: X/@rektcapital
BTC pre-halving price action. Source: X/@rektcapital

A similar retrace during this pre-halving period could send BTC prices plunging back to the $20,000 level.

Moreover, the notion of a November dump has been echoed by several analysts recently. 

Earlier this week, technical analyst ‘CryptoCon’ compared previous market cycles in the runup to the halving. 

The past two had similar six-month sideways trading periods leading up to the end of the year. In 2023, crypto markets have been sideways for the past seven months. 

However, November saw prices retreat to lows, which became the pivot for the next bull market. He said,

“We’re still waiting for the one date when these cycles lined up perfectly… November 21.”

Bitcoin halving cycles compared. Source: X/@CryptoCon_
Bitcoin halving cycles compared. Source: X/@CryptoCon

History Rhymes 

Crypto trader and analyst ‘Mags’ made a similar observation, noting how much BTC was down from its peak six months before the halving

In 2015, BTC was 65% below its all-time high at this time in the cycle. In 2019, BTC was around 60% below its ATH and in 2023, BTC is currently 61% below its ATH.

The asset is currently trading flat on the day at $26,789 at the time of writing. However, it has dropped around 4% since the weekend. 

There is solid support at $26,000, where it spent a month from mid-August, so this is likely to be its next move. 

If the cycles are destined to repeat, it could quickly fall much lower. 

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Martin Young
Martin Young is a seasoned cryptocurrency journalist and editor with over 7 years of experience covering the latest news and trends in the digital asset space. He is passionate about making complex blockchain, fintech, and macroeconomics concepts understandable for mainstream audiences.   Martin has been featured in top finance, technology, and crypto publications including BeInCrypto, CoinTelegraph, NewsBTC, FX Empire, and Asia Times. His articles provide an in-depth analysis of...