Bitcoin Is Bullish as Long as It Stays Above this Long-Term Moving Average

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Highlights

• The price has decreased below its 21-week moving average.
• The price is possibly trading inside a symmetrical triangle.
• There is support at $7,700 and $7,000.
• The 200-week MA is slightly below $6,000.

Well-known trader @TraderX0X0 tweeted an image of a long-term BTC chart, outlining two important moving averages, the 21 and 200-week averages. He states that the short-term movement is bearish and is expecting another touch of the 200-day MA soon in order to look for longs. https://twitter.com/TraderX0X0/status/1237137510674976770

Moving Averages (MA)

As stated, the MAs used in the tweet are the 21 (blue) and 200-week (black) averages. In addition, there are two time periods outlined that have almost identical movements:

1. Several price movements above/below the 21-week MA.
2. An ensuing price decrease that takes the price to the 200-week MA.

The first period showcasing these movements was between February and August of 2014, while the second happened between November 2019 and February 2020. After, a 142-day decrease followed until the price touched the 200-week MA. If the same thing happens in the current movement, the price will touch the 200-week MA near $6,000 in August 2020.

Symmetrical Triangle

Since reaching an all-time high price in December 2017, Bitcoin has possibly been trading inside a symmetrical triangle. The 200-week MA is way below the ascending support line of the triangle. Furthermore, it is below the two main weekly support levels, found at $7,700 and $7,000. The only support area near this MA is an old support at $6,000, which held the price in a period between February and July in 2018. Therefore, this puts in doubt the possibility that the price will validate it and bounce since the MA is below the current trading structure. Even if the price were to reach it, it could mean that the bullish structure is not intact and the trend will not reverse once the price gets there. So, a more logical move would be a decrease to $7,000, validating both the weekly support level and the ascending support line of the triangle prior to a breakout. This possibility is also bolstered by the proximity to the third halving, which is expected to occur in May. To conclude, the Bitcoin price has been decreasing since reaching the resistance line of its long-term symmetrical triangle in February. It will most likely make a low near $7,000 before eventually breaking out from the triangle.