On January 21, 2019, an anonymous user made a prediction about the Bitcoin price on six future dates. The first two predictions — more specifically, that the price will be at $5300 in April and at $9200 in July 2019 — were proven to be correct. However, the third one, which states that the Bitcoin price will be at $16,000 in October 2019, is at risk of being invalidated.
We only have nine days left in October and an increase of roughly 100 percent will be needed for the price to be reached. We do not believe such an increase is likely.
We previously discussed these anonymous predictions here.
Cryptocurrency trader @ezbrah outlined these same anonymous predictions again and projected a possible price path in which we reach $16,000 in October.
October 2019 – BTC ~ $16,000 pic.twitter.com/WNDgpdrk12
— ezbrah (@ezbrah_) October 20, 2019
What is interesting is the massive bullish daily candle that would take us above $9000 on October 21. Therefore, we would consolidate on October 21 and 22 before initiating a very rapid price increase. Let’s take a closer look and analyze how likely this is.
Previous Bitcoin Price Increase
Until now, the closest thing to having such an increase has been from February 6 to February 19, 2018, when the price increased by 95 percent in a period of 14 days. However, this occurred after a long downtrend and, in hindsight, was a retracement in response to prior decreases. On the contrary, the price has been consolidating for around three weeks in the current movement.
We have had similar increases prior to reaching the $10,891 high on December 17, 2017, but — since those were occurring at the final phase of the uptrend — we do not think the current Bitcoin price is at a similar phase in the market cycle.
More recently, we have had increases of 40 percent in 14 and 19 days in March 2019 and May 2019. These movements are shown below:
Therefore, judging solely on previous price movement, such an increase seems unlikely.
Looking at the current Bitcoin price movement, we can see that BTC is trading inside a descending wedge. This is a bullish pattern — so, at first glance, a price breakout seems likely.
However, looking at the moving averages (MA) gives a different outlook. The 100- and 200-day MAs are close to making a bearish cross. A bearish cross of these long-term MAs would have serious bearish implications.
Also, the 200-day MA has provided resistance to the price on two occasions in October. It almost coincides with the resistance line of the wedge. This, in turn, makes a breakout unlikely.
Therefore, we do not believe the $16,000 price prediction in October will prove to be correct. Rather, we believe the price may make a high of around $9000-$9200 before resuming its decrease within the wedge.
Do you think the Bitcoin price will reach $16,000 by the end of October? Let us know in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
Images are courtesy of Shutterstock, TradingView.