XRP, riding the broader crypto market’s momentum, has posted a 2.4% gain over the past 24 hours. Traders are now eyeing a bigger breakout, with the XRP price hovering near key resistance levels.
However, two on-chain metrics and one technical indicator suggest the rally might not have enough fuel just yet.
HODL Waves Show Short- and Mid-Term Holders are Exiting
When prices climb toward a breakout, one of the first questions to ask is whether existing holders are adding to positions or taking profits. That’s where HODL waves come in — this metric tracks the distribution of coins by how long they’ve been held.
In XRP’s case, two important cohorts are reducing their exposure. The 3–6 month holders controlled 12.079% of the supply when the XRP price was near $3.54, but have since dropped to 8.705%. The 1-week to 1-month holders peaked at 7.522% supply ownership around $3.13, but are now down to 4.964%.
This suggests that both medium-term and short-term participants — often the ones most active in trading rallies — are cutting back. That selling pressure can stall an early-stage breakout, especially if it’s not offset by strong buying from other groups.
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Whale-to-Exchange Flows Add Bearish Weight
If HODL waves show retail and swing traders stepping back, the next question is whether whales are offsetting the selling or joining in. The whale-to-exchange flow metric tracks how much big holders are moving to trading platforms — often a precursor to selling.
Current data shows a fresh spike in whale inflows to exchanges, last seen on August 4. That move preceded an XRP price correction from $3.07 to $2.96. These inflows don’t always trigger immediate drops, but historically they’ve often been followed by pullbacks within a few trading sessions.
With both short- and mid-term holders, as well as XRP whales, moving supply toward exchanges, the likelihood of sustained upside in the immediate term weakens.
XRP Price Action Meets OBV Divergence
The final layer of caution comes from a technical perspective. On August 6, XRP hit $3.33; now it trades around $3.35, marking a marginally higher high. Do note that the $3.35 level is also the immediate breakout zone, where the XRP price has been rejected once.
But On-Balance Volume (OBV) — which measures buying vs. selling pressure — is showing a steep lower high over the same period.
This OBV divergence indicates that, while the price has nudged higher, the underlying buying pressure is weaker than it was before. When viewed alongside the HODL wave decline and whale inflow spike, it paints a consistent picture: supply is building, and demand is not keeping pace.
Immediate resistance post-breakout sits at $3.43, followed by $3.51, with a potential run to $3.62–$3.76 if momentum shifts bullish. That would mean holders might have to jump in and establish new buying positions. Additionally, the whale inflows should also decrease. However, considering the current market strength, XRP’s price might end up consolidating in the $3.25 and $3.10 zone for a while.
Yet, a break under $3.10 would invalidate the broader bullishness. And that would prime the XRP price for a drop to $2.72 or lower.
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