The odds of an XRP ETF approval soared to 70% today on crypto-based predictions market Polymarket.
This increased optimism comes after XRP reached an all-time high earlier today, reaching $3.39 for the first time in nearly seven years.
Increasing Optimism Around XRP ETF Approval
With the success of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, several asset management firms have filed applications with the SEC for different altcoin ETFs. The ongoing bull market and Trump’s strong support for the crypto industry have increased retail demand for digital asset-based funds.
This optimism is reflected in XRP’s market performance, as the altcoin reached a record peak today after gaining over 40% this week.
Investment banking giants JPMorgan recently projected that Solana and XRP ETFs could attract over $14 billion in inflows in 2025. Based on this project, there’s strong anticipation that XRP ETFs could be approved this year.
“JPMorgan is saying that alt-coin ETF will collect $14b in flows in first year, $3-6b for Solana and $4-8b for XRP. My team hasn’t made any formal predictions yet but this seems like a pretty reasonable guess. Gotta get the approvals first tho,” wrote ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Meanwhile, odds on Polymarket also jumped to 70% today. This is significant because a week ago the odds were less than 50%. It’s evident that the crypto community is becoming more confident that an ETF for XRP is just a case of sooner rather than later.
SEC Still Remains the Biggest Hurdle
Currently, four XRP ETF applications are pending in the US – WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares. The biggest hurdle for these applications is the SEC itself.
Based on the regulator’s latest appeal, the SEC is evidently still pushing US lawmakers to treat XRP as a security. However, this challenge might not last very long.
With President-elect Trump’s inauguration next week, Gary Gensler, the current SEC chair and Ripple’s biggest enemy, is set to resign. Trump is also expected to overhaul the SEC’s regulatory framework.
So, it’s highly anticipated that the SEC will drop its prolonged lawsuit against Ripple. That’s why the likelihood of an XRP ETF is becoming inevitable, and even Ripple’s CEO thinks so.
“As expected, the SEC’s appeal brief is a rehash of already failed arguments –and likely to be abandoned by the next administration. We’ll respond formally in due time. For now, know this: the SEC’s lawsuit is just noise. A new era of pro-innovation regulation is coming, and Ripple is thriving,” wrote Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty.
However, it’s almost certain that XRP won’t be the first altcoin to have an ETF in 2025. That privilege will likely go to Litecoin. As BeInCrypto reported earlier, Nasdaq has already filed to list Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF.
Overall, the likelihood of an XRP ETF is becoming stronger, but regulators still need to address some obstacles to achieve this.
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