BNB appears to be one of the most resilient altcoins in the market today. While major tokens are still down after the weekend crash, BNB price is up 11% in seven days and over 45% in the past month, a standout performance during a volatile period.
Its rebound looks solid, but on-chain metrics and chart signals suggest that the next move might not be straight up. A short-term cooldown could come before the next leg higher.
Profit-Taking Returns as Holders Lock in Gains
The first warning sign comes from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which measures how much profit or loss holders currently have on paper.
BNB’s NUPL has climbed to 0.57, a similar level last reached on October 7, right before the BNB price corrected 15%, falling from around $1,300 to $1,100.
A similar peak on October 3 saw a smaller 3% pullback when traders briefly sold to secure profits.
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This recurring pattern shows that when NUPL reaches local highs, investors tend to take profits, cooling the market before it resumes upward. With the indicator now at a fresh local peak, a similar short-term phase could follow.
Interestingly, that behavior already seems to be showing up in the six- to twelve-month holding group. This group is tracked through a metric called HODL Waves, which shows how much of a coin’s supply is held for different lengths of time.
The six-to-twelve-month cohort, one of BNB’s biggest holder segments, has reduced its share sharply from 63.89% of supply on October 4 to just 18.15% now.
This group often represents investors who add conviction to rallies after the early rebound phase. Their recent reduction, combined with profit-taking at NUPL highs, suggests that the correction may already be underway, or at least that enthusiasm is cooling before these mid-to-long-term players rejoin.
If the NUPL peak eases and this key cohort starts adding again, that could trigger BNB’s next strong, sustained rally.
BNB Price Breaks Out, But Momentum May Be Fading
From a technical perspective, BNB just pulled off an important move. The coin broke above the upper trendline of a rising wedge, invalidating a bearish setup that formed during the crash. This breakout shows strong buying intent and flips short-term sentiment bullish.
BNB now trades around $1,340, testing the 0.382 Fibonacci extension level at $1,382 — measured from the previous swing between $930 (low) and $1,350 (high) with a retracement to $1,220.
A 12-hour close above $1,380 would confirm strength and open the path toward $1,430 and $1,480, invalidating the BNB price dip outlook.
However, there’s a developing bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures how strong or weak price moves are. Between October 10 and 12, BNB’s price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high (classical bearish divergence), showing that buying strength is fading even as the price climbs.
This divergence is a common technical sign that a short-term price dip could follow, especially after a sharp rally. This technical sign aligns with the other signals from the on-chain data: profit-taking at NUPL highs and mid-term holders stepping back.
If a pullback happens, the first support zone sits near $1,320, followed by $1,220. A deeper correction below $1,220 could send the BNB price toward $1,140.
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