Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading inside an ascending parallel channel for over 300 days, in what is possibly a long-term corrective structure.
The weekly chart shows that BTC has been in an upward movement since the $3,122 low of Dec 2018.
If the price began an upward movement at the time, it is most likely in wave four or five of this increase (white).
Throughout this upward movement, the periods between June 2019 to March 2020 and April 2021 to Jan 2022 (highlighted) have been corrective.
There is sufficient alternation between them to suggest that they are waves two and four of this increase.
The long-term movement aligns with this possibility. However, a look at the short-term movement is required in order to determine if this is the correct count.
For the previous wave count analysis, click here.
BTC triangle count
The first potential wave count suggests that wave four is forming inside a symmetrical triangle. In it, BTC is currently in sub-wave D (red). In this possibility, BTC would increase towards $51,000 – $55,250. This is an area created by the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement support levels. Afterward, another drop would be expected.
Despite the ongoing correction, this count is still valid.
A look at the shorter-term movement would suggest that BTC has one more upward movement left before it completes the aforementioned sub-wave D (red).
The price would have to reach a high considerable above $50,000 in order for this count to remain valid since each wave must retrace close to 0.618 of the previous one.
Bearish possibility
The bearish count suggests that the long-term wave three (white) ended at the Nov 2021 all-time high instead of in May of the same year.
In it, BTC has only completed the first portion of wave four (red). Afterward, another significant decrease will follow, eventually taking the price below $30,000.
The short-term movement would be identical to the triangle count. In it, BTC would complete another upward movement towards $50,000 before the final fall.
Completed BTC correction
The final and least likely count is that wave four ended on Jan 24 (green icon) and BTC has now begun the fifth and final wave.
The issue with this count is the extremely unusual sub-wave movement, in which wave one is truncated and wave two is irregular.
However, the short-term movement is similar to the previously outlined count, in which after the current drop is done, an increase above $50,000 would be expected.
Conclusion
To conclude, while there are several valid possibilities for the long-term movement. However, all of the short-term counts suggest that after the current drop is done, an increase towards at least $50,000 will occur.
For Be[in]Crypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here
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