Crypto analyst PlanB insists that the price of bitcoin (BTC) will hit $98,000 by end of November, even as markets fall sharply.
“I have not given up on November yet,” he declared on Twitter on Nov. 17, after he faced criticism over his method of predicting BTC prices. He supposedly backtracked on his earlier forecasts, according to critics.
PlanB, a pseudonymous Dutch investor, is famed for creating the stock-to-flow (S2F) price prediction model. The model is based on the ratio of the current supply (stock) of an asset or commodity to its annual production (flow).
It can be applied to any asset with limited supply really, and PlanB did so with bitcoin in 2019. The idea is that as the bitcoin supply diminishes with every “halving” event every four years, this will create boom and bust cycles. He uses these cycles to forecast prices.
So far, the S2F model has been fairly accurate. It correctly predicted bitcoin at $47,000 in August and $43,000 in September. The model missed its target of $63,000 for October, but PlanB, who claims 25 years of financial markets experience, said the three percent “rounding error was close enough for me”.
‘Bitcoin unlikely to reach $98K this month’
Now, questions are being asked over the $98,000 forecast for November, particularly in light of the decline in the price of BTC over the last few days. The top cryptocurrency has tumbled by over 23%, from a record high of $69,000 on Nov. 10 to around $56,000 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin will have to rise by more than 70% between now and the end of this month to meet up with PlanB’s target – something that critics say is unlikely. The Dutch analyst is accused of adjusting his price predictions lower once it became clear that the S2F would miss its target, and be invalidated.
In a tweet, however, PlanB explains that he uses three different models and the $98,000 target for November was not based on the stock-to-flow model. Instead, it is premised on what he calls the “floor model”, which relies on price and on-chain data.
“If, for example, $98K November floor model predictions fails, that does not mean stock-to-flow fails,” he insisted. PlanB clarified that the S2F for the current bitcoin cycle would be an average of $100,000, and on account of this, it may be difficult to know exactly at what price the model could be invalidated.
“S2F fails if BTC average price over this halving cycle is not ~$100K. So it is difficult to state a ‘level’…” he stated. This model also predicts bitcoin at $135,000 by year-end.