Is Bitcoin in the ‘Complacency’ Phase Before a Massive Decrease?

A number of traders believe that the entire upward move from $3400 to $13,760 occurred in response to the prior decrease, meaning that we are still in the corrective phase and will eventually reach a lower low. Well-known TradingView analyst @magicpoopcannon suggested that, when using the “Wall Street Cheat Sheet” chart, the Bitcoin price is currently in the “Complacency” phase. This suggests that a rapid decrease will soon ensue — which would take the Bitcoin price below the December 2018 low of $3400.

If we apply this chart to the entire history of BTC, I would say we are currently in the "complacency" phase. That would make sense too, considering how complacent everyone is with their moon dreams. I think we're about to enter REAL anxiety, denial, and dream crushing panic. pic.twitter.com/P5hjOvF0f7

— MAGIC (@MagicPoopCannon) December 15, 2019

How likely is this to occur? Continue reading below if you are interested in finding out.

Bitcoin in the Complacency Stage?

Using a logarithmic chart, we can see that the upward move began when the Bitcoin price reached a low of $163 in January 2015. The entire upward move lasted for 1050 days until the price reached a high of $19,764 in December 2017. According to the proposed cheat sheet, we are currently in the “Complacency” phase, outlined with the (B) in an A-B-C correction, and will continue to decrease until we reach $900-$1100 — a suitable level for a reversal, coinciding with the 2013 high. If the decrease takes the same amount of time as the preceding upward move, we would reach the bottom in October 2020. This would be an 86 percent decrease in less than 300 days — even more rapid than the decrease following the December 2017 high.

Logarithmic Growth Curve

Looking at the Bitcoin price since 2011, we can use curved trendlines to limit the scope of its movement. The price has always traded inside the confines of the resistance and support lines shown below. If the Bitcoin price were to complete a C wave towards $900-$1100, it would break down below the support line that has been in place for eight years. Additionally, as we can see during the correction after the 2013 high, the Bitcoin price does not necessarily have to decrease all the way to the previous high. The price only reached a low of $163 while the previous high was $31. A low near $6500 with a previous high of $1177, as is the case currently, would preserve a very similar ratio between previous high and current low.

Technical Indicators

The principal reason we do not believe the Bitcoin price is in the “complacency” stage comes from technical indicators. There are many similarities between the January 2015 bottom and the December 2018 one (yellow arrow). Both were combined with oversold values on the weekly RSI, the only two occasions that they have been recorded. Also, the Bitcoin price bounced at the 200-week moving average (MA) — which was very close to the ascending support line. This makes it more likely that the current Bitcoin price movement is similar to that after January 2016 — meaning that we are in the first stages of an upward cycle rather than the final stages before a massive decrease.