Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.249, up 44.4% in the past three months. In the last 24 hours, it has gained 4.2%, helped by excitement as the Dogecoin ETF ($DOJE) is expected to go live today.
Over the past seven days, the Dogecoin price is up 16%, while the past month shows a gain of about 12%. Short- and mid-term signals both look positive, and charts suggest a rally of nearly 50% could be possible if ETF-driven momentum holds.
But while one big group of holders is buying strongly, there is one risk that traders should not ignore. That risk could not only stall the rally but also turn the setup bearish.
SponsoredWhales Buy The News, But Not Without The Risk
One of the strongest drivers of Dogecoin price has been whale activity. Whales are wallets that hold more than 1 billion DOGE each. In just the last 24 hours, this group increased its stash from 71.67 billion to 71.90 billion DOGE. At current prices near $0.25, that equals more than $57 million worth of coins.
When whales increase their holdings, it often shows they expect higher prices ahead.
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However, there is a big risk flashing on-chain. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which tracks how much of the supply is in net profit, has climbed to 0.36. This is the highest monthly level, up from 0.25 on September 1. Historically, when NUPL reaches this kind of local peak, Dogecoin often sees a quick correction.
For example, on August 22, NUPL peaked around 0.34. At the same time, Dogecoin fell from $0.24 to $0.21 within just a few sessions, a drop of almost 12%. Similar dips followed peaks on August 13 and August 17. Each time, profits encouraged holders to sell, cutting into the Dogecoin price bounces.
This is why traders are cautious. While whales are buying, the NUPL risk shows that profit-taking could still appear and weaken the rally.
More About the DOGE ($DOJE) ETF
The much-anticipated Dogecoin ETF ($DOJE) is set to begin trading today, September 11, 2025, possibly during normal U.S. stock market hours (9:30 a.m.– 4:00 p.m. ET). The fund is issued by REX Shares in partnership with Osprey Funds, and distributed by Foreside Fund Services, the same team that earlier brought the Solana Staking ETF ($SSK) to market.
Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, which require explicit SEC approval under the Securities Act of 1933, DOJE was filed under the Investment Company Act of 1940. This “40 Act” framework allowed the ETF to bypass the longer SEC approval process. Instead of waiting for a formal greenlight, its registration became effective automatically unless the SEC objected. This shortcut gave REX and Osprey a clear first-mover advantage.
SponsoredShares of the ETF are expected to trade on NYSE Arca, the same exchange that lists most crypto-related ETFs. This means they can be bought through major U.S. brokerages such as Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Robinhood, since $DOJE will trade like any other listed stock or ETF.
Investors will simply need to search for the ticker $DOJE once markets open. The fund carries a 1.5% expense ratio and is required to hold at least 80% of its assets tied to Dogecoin, though the 1940 Act rules mean it also holds other regulated securities for diversification.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas called DOJE “the first U.S. ETF to hold something with no utility,” highlighting how unusual it is for Wall Street to embrace a token that started as a joke.
Dogecoin Price Hints At Pattern Breakout, But Needs Confirmation
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. When the price finally breaks either upward or downward, a strong move usually follows.
Sponsored SponsoredRight now, the breakout seems to be upward, but confirmation will come only if today’s candle closes above the triangle’s upper boundary or above $0.246.
If confirmed, the target from this breakout point toward $0.381. We measure the target by taking the vertical distance between the main swing high and the next deepest swing low, forming the widest part of the triangle, and then projecting that distance from the breakout point.
Before reaching $0.381, the Dogecoin price must clear interim resistance levels around $0.270 and $0.287. These areas could slow the move unless strong buying volume continues.
Still, the risk from NUPL cannot be ignored. If profit-taking pressure rises, it could invalidate the breakout.
If that happens, the market could see a 10–12% pullback, similar to what happened after earlier NUPL peaks in August. A move below $0.224 (almost a 12% drop from current levels) would place Dogecoin back in a weaker position and erase the near-term bullish momentum.
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