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Dogecoin (DOGE) Price in Limbo: Will it Breakout or Breakdown?

3 mins
Updated by Ryan Boltman
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In Brief

  • DOGE has hovered around the $0.08 zone for the past two weeks Despite recent volatility in the altcoin markets.
  • DOGE MVRV ratio has dropped to levels last seen during the USDC de-peg back in March.
  • Dogecoin Miners have increased their balances in 3 consecutive days.
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Despite recent volatility in the altcoin market, the Dogecoin (DOGE) price has held the $0.078 support level. Multiple on-chain metrics flashing green signals lead strategic investors to make bullish DOGE price predictions. Is it time for another breakout to $0.09? 

Dogecoin (DOGE) bulls have stood firm, even with the global altcoin market contracting by 2.5% since the end of April 2023. Here’s how the recent accumulation trend among Dogecoin miners and disillusioned holders could potentially power a price rebound.

Miners Are Growing Optimistic

After selling off about 5% of their total reserves in April, Dogecoin miners entered May in accumulation mode. On-chain data shows that they have increased their holdings by a total of 20 million coins in 3 consecutive days of positive netflow. 

The chart below shows that Dogecoin miners had only 4.47 billion coins in their reserves as of Tuesday, May 2. And by Friday, May 5, they had increased their balance to 4.50 billion DOGE. 

The newly added 20 million coins are worth approximately $2.3 million at the current market price of $0.078

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: Miner Reserves data.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: Miner Reserves data. Source: IntoTheBlock

When miners begin to accumulate their block rewards rather than sell, it could mean two things. First, that mining costs have been reduced significantly. Alternatively, they could build up their reserves in anticipation of future price gains. 

Either way, an increase in Miner reserves means less market supply and more upward pressure on the price of DOGE. 

Moreso, since the miners currently control more than 3% of the total DOGE circulation supply, they can influence other investors to become bullish. If the accumulation trend continues, the bullish Dogecoin price prediction could be validated 

Disillusioned Holders May Refuse to Sell

Another critical factor that could add some credence to the positive DOGE price prediction is the low MVRV ratio. MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Ratio. It estimates the current financial position of holders who recently bought an asset. 

As things stand, the majority of DOGE holders appear disillusioned with their current financial position. The chart below shows the majority of investors that bought Dogecoin in the last 30 days are looking at losses of about 7%. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: MVRV (30d) Ratio.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: MVRV (30d) Ratio. Source: Santiment

Notablly, any increase in unrealized losses will see DOGE holders sink to 10% underwater for the first time since the USDC de-peg contagion back in Barch 

Hence, investors can be confident of a bullish DOGE price prediction because the low MVRV ratio means that current holders are unlikely to sell as they look to avoid making further losses. 

DOGE Price Prediction: Road to $0.09? 

IntoTheBlock’s DOGE price prediction, as inferred from the In/Out of The Money Around Price (IOMAP) data, indicates a potential rise toward $0.09.

However, the bulls will first have to contend with a significant sell pressure from 142,000 addresses holding 15 billion coins at an average price of $0.084. 

But if the bullish prediction is validated, DOGE could rise as far as $0.09. At that zone, a cluster of 139,000 investors that had bought 11 billion coins at a maximum price of $0.09 could slow down the rally. 

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: IOMAP data.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Prediction, May 2023: IOMAP data. Source: IntoTheBlock

Conversely, the bears can seize control of the market if Dogecoin loses its current support at $0.076. Although the bullish cluster of 140,000 addresses that bought 8 billion coins at an average price of $0.076 will likely prevent this. 

But if the Dogecoin price loses that support, holders can expect a further decline toward $0.066. Here, there is a more significant support of 520,000 addresses holding 45 billion DOGE. 

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Ibrahim Ajibade
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is an experienced On-chain research analyst who began his career in Commercial Banking. He has worked with several Web3 startups and financial institutions —analyzing technical concepts and spectacular events that link the DeFi and TradFi worlds. He holds a Bachelors’ Degree in Economics and is currently pursuing an MSc. in Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies.
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