Comparing the Current Bitcoin Price Movement to That in 2016/2017

However, the question remains: What is the period that resembles the current price movement the most? Self-proclaimed cryptocurrency market whisperer @onemanatatime posted an interesting thought on Twitter, suggesting that the current Bitcoin price movement resembles the 2016 movement more than it does that of 2017, even though the majority is leaning towards the latter being a better predictor.

Why are we comparing this market to 2017? If anything, shouldn't we be comparing with 2016?

— Alunaut 🌎 🚀 🌘 (@onemanatatime) February 15, 2020

Below, we are going to take a look at the most recent Bitcoin price movement and compare it with both 2016 & 2017 in order to see where do the similarities are more prevalent.

Bitcoin Moving Averages

Using the logarithmic chart, we can draw curved trend-lines that encompass the entire Bitcoin price movement since 2011. The price has bounced on the support line and the 200-week moving average (MA) twice, on August 2015 and December 2018, respectively 427 days have passed since the price touched the support line in December 2018. So, adding 427 days to August 2015, we arrive at the conclusion that the current price movement is similar to that in November 2016.

Bitcoin Halvening

The halvening angle also suggests that the current price movement is similar to that in 2016. The second halvening occurred on July 11, 2016, while the third one is projected to transpire on May 11, 2020. In addition, the increases prior to the event are similar, being 292% and 345% respectively. While the bottom occurred closer to halvening in 2016 than in 2020, the similarities are definitely there. Since there are 91 days left until halvening, the current price movement falls in line with that in April 2016, if we use the halvening dates in order to make the comparison.

RSI Bottom

Another way to make a comparison would be by using the weekly RSI and finding the lowest values reached in each cycle. Doing so, we can see that the RSI low of 27 reached in January 2015 corresponds with that reached in December 2018. In 2015, the low was reached 413 days after the all-time high, while in 2018 it was reached 371 days afterward. Using this same ratio (1.11), we can make the assumption that the current price (791 days after the high) is at a similar place as the price in April 2016, 882 days after the previous high.

Conclusion

To conclude, if we go by moving averages, the current Bitcoin price movement is similar to that in November 2016. On the other hand, both halvening and the RSI suggest that the current price is at a similar point to where it was in April 2016. All these methods suggest that the rapid gains experienced in 2017 are still some time away.