Cardano (ADA) has been on a rocky path this month. After posting early gains, the altcoin has now retraced 37%, erasing most of its recent upside.
While broader market indicators hinted at a bullish outlook, technical patterns suggest that the momentum may not hold.
Cardano Losses Are Likely
Cardano appears to be nearing a Death Cross, a bearish technical signal. This occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) slips below the 200-day EMA. Historically, this crossover has often preceded sharp price declines.
If this formation is confirmed, it would be ADA’s first Death Cross in 10 months. It would also officially end the ongoing five-month-long Golden Cross, a bullish pattern that previously supported the asset’s growth.
With momentum fading, investors may see this as a pivot toward further downside pressure.
On-chain data further dampens investor confidence. The MVRV Long/Short Difference — a metric comparing the profitability of long-term holders (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs) — has been declining steadily.
While still in positive territory, its fall suggests LTHs are seeing their profits shrink.
This metric is now sitting at a four-month low, increasing the risk of profit-taking by LTHs. If these investors begin to sell to preserve gains, it could introduce added selling pressure. The resulting drawdown may undercut any bullish momentum Cardano is attempting to hold onto.
ADA Price Is Consolidated
ADA is currently trading at $0.71, down 37% from its recent high. The decline has broken its macro uptrend, although the altcoin remains just above the $0.70 support level. This floor has acted as a key technical barrier.
However, the looming Death Cross, combined with fading long-term investor confidence, may push Cardano below this support. If $0.70 is breached, ADA could slip to $0.62. This would mark a further extension of the ongoing correction phase, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
On the other hand, if Cardano manages to invalidate the bearish thesis, it must rise above $0.77. This would end the current 11-day consolidation phase.
A successful breakout could propel ADA toward $0.85, reclaiming some of the lost ground and potentially restoring short-term investor confidence.
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